Hot news

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit China

As agreed between China and the US, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China from April 4 to 9.

• The number of job vacancies in the US in February was slightly higher than expected. The voluntary turnover rate was the lowest since 2020, and the number of layoffs hit the highest in nearly a year

The number of JOLTS vacancies in the US in February was 8.756 million, slightly better than expected. The value was revised down to 8.748 million before January. The voluntary turnover rate in February was 2.2%, the lowest level since 2020. The number of layoffs rose to its highest level in almost a year due to increased layoffs in the leisure and hospitality industry.

• Meester: It is impossible to cut interest rates until May; we will consider it later this year

Federal Reserve Board member and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Governor Meester said that whether to cut interest rates depends on future inflation data, but he is convinced that the inflation rate will continue to slowly fall towards the 2% target. Meester said that given the current strong economy, there is currently no rush to cut interest rates, but it is expected that interest rates will be cut three times later this year. Furthermore, Meester also emphasized that in the current situation where the economy and the job market are performing well, there is a risk of cutting interest rates too soon.

• Federal Reserve Daly: Three interest rate cuts in 2024 are reasonable baseline predictions

Federal Reserve Daly said that there is no urgency to adjust interest rates; the decision made by the FOMC in March is a very good decision; it is necessary to consider how long to keep interest rates at the current level; keeping the policy unchanged is the right decision; cutting interest rates three times in 2024 is a reasonable baseline forecast; if inflation is more stubborn, they may want to cut interest rates; the economy and monetary policies are in a good state; the economy is still very stable, and the process of inflation falling back is uneven.

• Morgan Stanley Slimmon: The reduction in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve bodes well for US stocks

Andrew Slimmon, an investment manager at Morgan Stanley, believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates less, it bodes well for both the economy and the stock market. Slimmon said that the reason for reducing the number of interest rate cuts is usually optimistic. In his view, if interest rates are not cut at all this year, it means that the earnings per share of S&P 500 stocks are expected to reach 275 to 280 US dollars in early 2025. Given that the market will expect these predictions, the rise in the stock market is reasonable.

• Passenger Federation: The wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger car manufacturers across the country is estimated to be 820,000 units in March, up 33% year on year and 84% month on month

According to the Passenger Federation, there were 21 working days in March this year, which is 2 days less than the 23 working days in March 2023. Due to the rapid transition to normal operation of all walks of life after the Spring Festival holiday, production and sales of passenger cars increased rapidly from month to month in March. According to the comprehensive estimates of the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, in March 2024, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 820,000 units, up 33% year on year and 84% month on month.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The three major indices fell collectively. Tesla fell nearly 5%, the biggest decline in four weeks, and cryptocurrency concept stocks fell sharply

The three major US stock indexes all fell more than 1% in the intraday period. The Dow closed down nearly 400 points to a two-week low, and both S&P recorded their biggest daily decline in four weeks. The Dow closed down 1% to 39170.24 points, the NASDAQ closed down 0.95% to 16240.45 points, and the S&P closed down 0.72% to 5205.81 points.

After announcing that the delivery of 386.81 million vehicles in the first quarter fell far short of expectations and was nearly 14% lower than analysts' median expectations, Tesla fell nearly 6.7% in early trading and narrowed in midday trading, closing down 4.9%, the biggest daily decline since March 4. It fell three consecutive trading days to a low level since March 15.

Bitcoin's sharp decline dragged cryptocurrency and blockchain concept stocks down sharply. At the close, Bitcoin mining companies CleanSpark (CLSK), Marathon Digital (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell nearly 9.4%, 8.8%, and 7.5%, respectively, while MicroStrategy (MSTR), the listed company that holds the most Bitcoin, fell 3.5%, and Coinbase (COIN), the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, fell 2.5%.

• Tesla delivered 386,800 vehicles in the first quarter, the first year-on-year decline since 2020

First quarter$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Delivery volume of 38,6810 vehicles is far lower than analysts' average estimate of 44,9080 vehicles, and is the first year-on-year decline since the pandemic. The number of cars produced in the first quarter was 433,371, which also fell short of the market estimate of 45,2976 units. Tesla faced the double blow of declining demand for electric vehicles and high interest rates in the first quarter. Analysts had previously lowered their expectations for Tesla's delivery volume.

• Intel's foundry business lost 7 billion US dollars in 2023, falling more than 4% after the market

$Intel (INTC.US)$Total revenue declined from US$57 billion in 2022 to US$47.7 billion in 2023. By sector, the revenue of the data center and AI division fell from US$16.86 billion in 2022 to US$12.64 billion in 2023. Intel's foundry revenue fell from $27.5 billion in 2022 to $18.9 billion in 2023. At the same time, the division's operating losses are also growing, rising from $5.2 billion in 2022 to $7 billion. Intel fell more than 4% after the market.

• Organization: 25% of Apple's revenue in 2025 will come from services

Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that the success of the Apple One package will$Apple (AAPL.US)$Service revenue became the second largest source of revenue after the iPhone. The agency believes that Apple's service prospects are broad. By 2025, service revenue will account for 25% of Apple's total revenue. This will mean that the annual revenue of Apple services will exceed 100 billion US dollars for the first time. Counterpoint Research also predicts that despite regulatory issues, Apple's total revenue will grow to $400 billion a year.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui Gacang Ideal and Meituan each surpassed HK$300 million and sold Xiaomi for nearly HK$1 billion

On April 2 (Tuesday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$3,696 billion in Hong Kong stocks today.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$1,525 million, HK$324 million and HK$318 million respectively;

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$SCICLONE PHARMA (06600.HK)$,$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$Net sales were HK$992 million, HK$274 million and HK$112 million respectively.

• Alibaba: In the first quarter, the company repurchased a total of 524 million shares of common stock at a total price of 4.8 billion US dollars

$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that during the quarter ending March 31, 2024, a total of 524 million shares of common stock (equivalent to 65 million American Depositary Shares) were repurchased at a total price of US$4.8 billion. In the financial year ending March 31, 2024, a total of 1,249 billion common shares were repurchased at a total price of US$12.5 billion.

• Xiaomi SU7 starts delivery today

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Chairman Lei Jun posted on Weibo yesterday that on April 3, the first delivery ceremony for the Xiaomi SU7 will be held at the Xiaomi car factory in Yizhuang, Beijing. Meanwhile, delivery centers in 28 cities across the country will also simultaneously begin delivery on April 3.

Today's attention

Keywords: China Caixin Services PMI; US ADP employment numbers, ISM non-manufacturing PMI

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce ADP employment numbers for March, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for March, final S&P global services PMI for March, and API/EIA crude oil inventory for the week up to March 29; China will announce the March Caixin Services PMI; and Hong Kong, China will announce the annual retail sales rate for February.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will deliver a speech, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meister will deliver a speech on the economic outlook, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly will attend a fireside conversation, and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams will host a discussion.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$Mobile-health Network Solutions (MNDR.US)$It will be available today.

Futubull Chen read:

Our goal is to buy a company with good performance at a reasonable price, not a mediocre company at a cheap price. Charlie discovered with me that buying the real thing is what we really should do.

—Warren Buffett

Editor/Jeffy