分产品来看，2023 年电源总成收入6.27 亿元，同比-6.6%；电机控制器收入6.24 亿元，同比+8.16%；电驱总成收入5.81 亿元，同比+3.92%，占营业收入的29.6%。电源总成、电机控制器、电驱总成毛利率分别为16.88%、25.35%、2.88%。Key points of investment:
On March 29th, the company released its 2023 annual report. The company achieved annual revenue of 1,963 billion yuan, -2.1% year-on-year; realized net profit of 82.3615 million yuan, or +234.3% year-on-year. Both revenue growth and profit fell short of market expectations.
The company completed the construction of an “integrated core” production line and product plan upgrade in the first half of 2023. In the second half of the year, targeted projects were mass-produced one after another, and revenue resumed year-on-year growth. 24Q4 revenue reached 703 million yuan, a record high in revenue for a single quarter.
By product, power supply assembly revenue in 2023 was 627 million yuan, -6.6% year on year; motor controller revenue was 624 million yuan, +8.16% year over year; electric drive assembly revenue was 581 million yuan, +3.92% year on year, accounting for 29.6% of revenue. The gross margins of the power supply assembly, motor controller, and electric drive assembly were 16.88%, 25.35%, and 2.88%, respectively.
23H2 profitability rebounded markedly. 2023 gross margin was 17.1%, +0.84pct; net profit margin was 4.2%, +2.97pct yoy. 23Q4 gross margin was 20.6%, +1.02 percentage points month-on-month; net margin was 5.6%, +6.85pct year-on-year. The main reasons for the improvement include: ① The company has reduced product costs through technological innovation. ② As commodity prices fall and the supply of electronic devices such as chips gradually stabilizes, high-priced inventory is gradually being exhausted. ③ Joint supplier collaborative development has reduced parts costs, and the company's profit level has been raised.
Due to prudential principles, asset depreciation has been applied to the current receivables and inventory assets of some customers. Asset impairment losses were accrued at 30.64 million, and credit impairment losses were accrued at 23.46 million to deal with the potential bankruptcy and liquidation risk of some new power brands.
At present, the share of uncalculated assets in this portion has declined markedly, and the risk is basically manageable.
The company will implement equity incentives in 2023, and is expected to incur expenses of about 76.6 million yuan in 24, which will put a certain amount of pressure on profits for that year. However, in 25-26, the cost of equity incentives is estimated to be 3787/16.56 million yuan, which significantly reduces the pressure on profits.
Looking forward to the future, I believe that with the gradual expansion of three generations of integrated cores and the landing of new major customers, the company's revenue and profit will return to normal. At the same time, in '23, the company actively deployed in the fields of commercial vehicles and non-road vehicles, and completed targeted projects such as BAIC Foton Commercial Vehicles, Geely Remote Commercial Vehicles, Linde Forklifts, Nuoli Forklifts, and BYD Electric Motorcycles. Looking forward to 25 years combined with the contributions of overseas customers, the potential for the release of new commercial vehicle products, and continued revenue growth is worth looking forward to.
Investment analysis opinion: Technology cost reduction is a better solution for the Chinese manufacturing industry to overtake cars in curves, and Ingol's “integrated core” solution is a reflection of this trend. However, considering the short-term upstream price war pressure and the pressure on management expenses during the company's transition period. The 24-25 revenue forecast was carefully lowered from $32/45 billion to $2.6/3.3 billion. The 24-25 net profit forecast was lowered from $18/30 million to $100/220 million. The 2026 revenue forecast was added at 4.1 billion yuan, and the net profit forecast was 290 million yuan, corresponding to the current PE of 43/20/15 times. Considering that the company is actively laying out various new tracks, it is seeking breakthroughs in hot fields such as the low-altitude economy. Considering that the target company Huichuan Technology's valuation was 21 times higher in 2025, Ingol's valuation center for the past 3 years was in the 30x-40x range. Maintain the company's holdings increase rating in line with subsequent growth.
Risk warning: The price war continues to worsen, raw material costs fluctuate, and downstream demand for new energy sources shrinks.
