BYD sold 303,000 new energy vehicles in March, an increase of 147%, and sales performance was impressive. BYD sold 302,500 electric vehicles in March, +46%/+147% YoY, of which 38,434 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, +189%/+65% YoY. The cumulative sales volume in 24Q1 was 626,300 units, up 13% year on year, and cumulative exports in 24Q1 were about 98,000 units, up 153% year on year. Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in March was 301,600 units, +46%/+148% compared to the same period, and the cumulative sales volume for 24Q1 was 624,400 units; the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in March was 828 units, -16%/+47% compared to the same period last month, and the cumulative sales volume for 24Q1 was 1,865 units.
The share of pure electricity increased month-on-month, and high-end models continued to increase. In March 2024, BYD's plug-in passenger car sales volume was 161,700 units, +56%/+142%, accounting for 54%, up 3.4 pcts year on year, down 1.3 pct month on month; 24Q1 cumulative sales volume was 324,300 units, a cumulative increase of 15% year on year. The sales volume of pure electric passenger cars was 139,900 units, +36%/+155%, accounting for 46%, down 3.4 pcts year on year, up 1.3 pct month on month; 24Q1 cumulative sales volume was 301,000 units, up 13% year on year.
In March, Dynasty and Ocean Net sold 286,700 units, +47%/+151% YoY; Tension sold 10,279 vehicles, -1%/+124% YoY. Among the new models, the Yangwang brand sold 1,090 units, an increase of 40%; Equation Leap sold 3,550 units, an increase of 54%.
Exports and the release of high-end models are expected to sell 360-3.9 million units in 24 years. The company's product matrix is complete. Looking up and Equation Panther complement high-end models. In February and March 2024, the all-electric performance supercar Looking U9 and the new model Yuan UP will be launched respectively. 3 Tense models, Equation Leopard 8, Panther 3, and Look Up U7 will also be launched during the year. Considering the introduction of new cars, the gradual release of high-end models, and the increase in overseas export contributions, and active and intelligent layout, 24Q3 achieved high-end smart driving standards for models over 300,000 yuan, and high-end smart driving options for models with more than 200,000 models launched in Q3, we expect BYD to sell 360-3.9 million electric vehicles in 24, an increase of 25%. Looking at the structure, the number of high-end models is rapidly increasing. It is estimated that in '24, the Equation is 100,000 +, Tense+, and about 20,000 units. The above three models account for about 7% of BYD's sales, an increase of 3 pct. The export is expected to export 450,000 vehicles, an increase of 80%.
Battery capacity increased 76% in March, and battery production is expected to maintain a 35%-40% growth rate in 2024.
Power and energy storage batteries installed 11.76 GWh in March, +19%/+76% YoY, 24Q1 cumulative installed capacity 29.74 GWh. Benefiting from the high demand for global power plant projects, the company's battery production in 2023 was about 175g wh, an increase of 90% over the previous year. Of these, energy storage battery shipments were about 25 GWh, an increase of about 80% over the previous year, contributing a significant increase. We expect battery production to be 240 GWh in 2024, an increase of 37%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the continued growth of high-end models, we maintained the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 323/388/46.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7%/20%/21%. The corresponding PE was 19/16/13x, respectively. The corresponding PE was 19/16/13x, and the target price was 310.52 yuan for 24 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Electric vehicle sales fall short of expectations, and the price war between car companies continues.