2023Q4 net profit to mother turned a loss into a profit in a single quarter. The inflection point of performance may have been BOMEC's net profit loss of 75 million yuan in 2023, which is the bottom of the performance; of these, Q4 revenue was 450 million, +4.3% month-on-month, and net profit to mother was 111 million, turning a loss into a profit in a single quarter.
The inflection point of the order may have arrived, and the company's overseas high-end market is expanding smoothly
In 2023, the company signed 3 new major orders with a total contract value of at least $510 million. 1) A Uaru FPSO order was signed in June, with a contract amount of 152 million US dollars, participating in the international oil company ExxonMobil's FPSO project for the first time; 2) signed an offshore platform living building module contract with Servizi Energia Italia S.p.A. in September, amounting to 220 million US dollars to quickly enter the Middle East market; 3) Binding MODEC to sign an FPSO RAIATopside project contract in October, amounting to 140 million US dollars.
The prosperity of the offshore industry continues to rise. We expect the company to sign new orders in 2024, and global offshore oil and gas exploration investment will continue to increase in 2023, +9.7% year-on-year, with investment in exploration and development increasing significantly, +23% over the same period last year. According to IHS estimates, offshore oil and gas investment is +17.7% year-on-year in 2024, and we expect the prosperity of the offshore industry to continue to increase.
The company is actively targeting regions with impressive growth in offshore oil and gas investment, such as the Middle East and South America. At the same time, the company's own capabilities have been improved to achieve overall services from detailed design to assembly and commissioning, and broaden overseas general contractor resources. We expect that the company's new orders will continue to reach new highs in 2024.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Maintain the 2024-2025 net profit forecast of 11/280 million yuan, and add the 2026 net profit forecast of 40 million yuan, corresponding PE of 37/14/10 times, respectively, to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The economic recession has brought about a decline in crude oil demand, which will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices; there is a risk that future production of new projects will fall short of expectations.