毛利率持平，费用端有优化：公司2023 年综合毛利率为88.1%，同比持平。 随着下半年销售力度加大，全年销售费用率同比增加2.1 个百分点至39.4%；管理费用率有所优化，同比下降2.3 个百分点；研发费用率3.8%，同比下降3.6 个百分点，与研发节奏有关；财务费用率为-0.2%，同比增加0.1 个百分点。总体来看，期间费用率下降3.8 个百分点至45.8%，净利率为35.7%，同比提升7.2 个百分点，助力净利润端快速增长。Conclusions and recommendations:
Company performance: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 2.41 billion yuan, YOY +32.0%, recorded net profit to mother of 860 million yuan, YOY +65.5%, which is in the middle of the performance forecast range, which is in line with expectations. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 690 million yuan in a single quarter, YOY +160.4%, and recorded net profit of 230 million yuan, an increase of more than 14 times over the previous year. The main reason was the low base period for influenza vaccination in 22Q4 and the 2023 influenza pandemic, which increased public demand during the influenza vaccination season.
The influenza pandemic has spawned demand for vaccines, and competitor shutdowns are beneficial to the company's shipments: due to the high incidence of influenza outbreaks in early and late 2023, people are more willing to get vaccinated against influenza. In addition, competitor Kindick stopped production due to torrential rain in 2023, which also benefited the company. In terms of actual sales volume, the company sold a total of 19.397 million vaccines in 2023 (most of which were influenza vaccines), an increase of 33.4% over the previous year, achieving rapid growth.
The gross margin remained flat, and the cost side was optimized: the company's comprehensive gross margin in 2023 was 88.1%, the same as the previous year. As sales intensified in the second half of the year, the annual sales expense ratio increased 2.1 percentage points year on year to 39.4%; the management expense ratio was optimized, down 2.3 percentage points year on year; the R&D expense ratio was 3.8%, down 3.6 percentage points year on year, related to the pace of R&D; and the financial expense ratio was -0.2%, up 0.1 percentage points year on year. Overall, the expense ratio fell 3.8 percentage points to 45.8% during the period, and the net interest rate was 35.7%, up 7.2 percentage points from the previous year, contributing to rapid growth on the net profit side.
The equity incentive plan guarantees growth: The restricted stock assessment requirements in the company's 2022 equity incentive plan are 40%, 80%, and 100% increases in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, compared to 2021. Based on this calculation, the absolute amounts of the company's 2023-2025 net profit assessment requirements need to reach 8.2 billion, 1.05 billion, and 1.17 billion yuan respectively. We believe that the equity incentive plan will help guarantee the company's future performance growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company to record net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, 1.31 billion yuan, 1.53 billion yuan, YOY +27.2%, +19.7%, +116.8%, EPS of 1.82 yuan, 2.18 yuan, and 2.55 yuan respectively in 2024-2026. The corresponding PE is 13X, 11X, and 9X respectively. The stock price is undervalued after recent adjustments, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Vaccine sales fall short of expectations, R&D progress falls short of expectations
