The annual results are close to the forecast limit. The Q4 gross margin both increased the company's revenue of 1,497 million yuan year on month, up 39.2% year on year, and net profit to mother of 164 million yuan, up 34.9% year on year, close to the upper limit of the previous performance forecast range. Among them, Q4 revenue was 329 million yuan, up 22.7% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.27 million yuan, down 4.1% year on year. Q4 When gross margin increased year-on-month in a single quarter, the decrease in profit was mainly due to a 2.5 pct year-on-year increase in the expense ratio. Due to the pace of production capacity release, we lowered our profit forecast for 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. We expect net profit of 1.85/2.36/295 million yuan for 2024-2026 (the value before 2024-2025 was 246/327 million yuan), EPS was 0.68/0.86/1.08 yuan (pre-2024-2025 value was 0.90/1.19 yuan), and PE corresponding to the current stock price is 16.2/12.7/10.1 times, maintaining the “buy” evaluation grade.
The main advantages of the traditional chemical industry have been consolidated. Looking at downstream demand moving towards high-end products, petroleum refining equipment revenue was 446 million yuan, an increase of 168.0% year on year, mainly due to increased downstream orders and good product delivery throughout the year; gross margin was 19.7%, up 5.6 pcts year on year, a significant increase. Natural gas chemical equipment revenue was 473 million yuan, an increase of 46.4% over the previous year, mainly due to the recent sharp increase in new projects and technical improvement projects in the fertilizer industry. Revenue from high-end new energy equipment was 409 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, mainly due to a phased decline in PV demand. Looking ahead to 2024, the overall order situation of the company is good. The downstream CNPC refining, gas chemical and nuclear power will continue to maintain a good boom, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to return to a healthy development trend.
The progress of fund-raising and production expansion has been postponed, pending the release of new production capacity
According to the company's annual report, due to the principle of prudence, the company has slowed the implementation of fund-raising projects. Among them, the high-end process equipment intelligent manufacturing project was postponed to December 2025 (the original planned production time was August 2024).
Looking at the specific progress, the first workshop in the project was first constructed, and trial production began in January 2024; the planned second workshop is slowing down and is currently in the occupational health evaluation and early design stages. Once the construction of the project is completed, the company will be able to effectively solve the problem of production capacity bottlenecks, meet the demand for order growth, and guarantee rapid growth in performance.
Risk warning: the start of construction of nuclear power units and the progress of grid connection falls short of expectations; domestic replacement of new fuels and spent fuel transport containers falls short of expectations; the company's order delivery and production capacity growth fall short of expectations.