Incident: The company revealed its 2023 annual forecast, and its performance increased significantly over the same period last year. The company is expected to generate revenue of 7.221 billion yuan in 2023, +15.23% year on year; net profit to mother of 804 million yuan, +78.21% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 866 million yuan, +115.97% year on year; and operating activities generate a cash flow of 2.2 billion yuan, +102.09% year over year.
Benefiting from centralized procurement and targeted cost reduction measures for various mines, the company achieved significant cost reduction results in 2023. In 2023, domestic and foreign mines achieved significant cost reduction results through centralized procurement. In addition to centralized procurement measures, each mine also takes targeted measures to cut costs and increase efficiency according to its own reality. Geelong Mining uses the advantages of high resource grade to strengthen mining management, reduce loss rates and depletion rates, and greatly increase mine selection grades; Wulong Mining accelerates the improvement of mining capacity through underground technical improvement projects to meet the needs of 3,000 tons/day, with a daily plant capacity of more than 1,800 tons in the second half of 2023; Vientiane Mining continues to carry out beneficiation technology research to steadily increase the gold beneficiation recovery rate. The comprehensive recovery rate in 2023 is 66.5%. Through technical transformation of the tailings regrinding process and resin beneficiation process, the gold processing recovery rate is expected to reach in 2024 More than 75%; in response to the problems of insufficient mining capacity and low efficiency of the tunneling project, Venus Wasa introduced a third party contractor to form an internal competition mechanism, significantly improving the efficiency of the tunneling project and reducing the unit cost. At the same time, the company strictly controlled capital expenditure. In 2023, the full maintenance cost of gold units measured in RMB for domestic mines decreased by 27.23% year on year, while Vientiane Mining and Venus Vasa reduced the full maintenance costs of gold units measured in US dollars by 9.95% and 12.70% year on year, respectively, with remarkable cost reduction results.
The construction/expansion of the company's mines is progressing as scheduled, and the ore processing capacity is expected to continue to improve. (1) Vientiane Mining: Important projects under construction, such as the extension of the western tailings depot, DSE underground fans, rock crushing lines, PP3 upgrades (increasing water treatment capacity), and underground drainage pumping stations, are being implemented according to plan. (2) Venus Vasa: Introduce engineering contractors, improve the efficiency of tunneling projects, and develop 242 ramps and B-shoot southern ramps. (3) Geelong Mining:
The gold ore beneficiation and expansion project, which added 180,000 tons a year, has completed civil engineering for the main plant, such as washing and crushing workshops, and civil engineering for the tailings pressure filtration workshop. All equipment, cable trays, etc. of the main plant have been installed. It is expected that all construction will be completed in June 2024 and will enter the trial production stage. Construction of the new tailings depot began in mid-November 2023. The Yangpo II blind shaft, the blind shaft project in the fourth center of the main well, the assembly project for the ventilation well of the fourth middle shaft in the Yangpo mine division in the first mining area, and the construction project for the new Luofengmao shaft are all progressing according to plan. (4) Wulong Mining: Underground development projects such as the four-quarter mine 163 blind shaft deepening project (23-27 middle section), ventilation system renovation project, four-quarter mine auxiliary shaft blind shaft equipment project, and four-quarter mine auxiliary shaft blind shaft deepening project (19-23 middle section) continue to advance to improve mining capacity as soon as possible to meet the needs of the 3000 tons/Tianxuan plant. (5) Jintai Mining Xidengping Gold Mine: The entire project was completed and put into production and use in October 2023, and all production processes were completed. (6) Hanfeng Mining: The 554m Pingtung blind shaft equipment project for the lower mining area of Tateyama (Phase I) has been basically completed; the borehole excavation project for the return wind well tunneling project has completed 98% of the plan. The Dongfeng ore molybdenum beneficiation plant began technical reform in August 2023, and trial production and operation began in October. The results were good after the technical reform.
Profit forecast: The company's gold production is expected to be 16.02/18/20 tons in 2024-2026, respectively. The company's profit is expected to continue to improve as the price of gold rises and the company's own cost reduction and fee control. The company's operating income for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 85.64/94.78/10.466 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 12.15/15.09/1,787 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 23.66/19.05/16.09 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Gold prices have dropped sharply; project progress falls short of expectations; environmental policy changes.