业绩逐步向好，期待公司2024 年表现。分季度看，公司2023Q1-Q4 收入分别为2.78/3.56/3.56/5.87 亿，环比逐渐提升。鉴于公司2023 年仅有人二倍体狂苗和兽用疫苗产生收入，且人二倍体狂苗收入占比为99.97%，根据平均单价计算，公司2023Q1-Q4 狂苗销售支数约为98/125/125/207 万支，发货情况持续改善。根据批签发数量计算，当前人用狂犬疫苗市场中人二倍体狂苗市场占比为10%左右，人二倍体狂苗作为WHO 认定的狂苗金标准，其渗透率仍有较大的提升空间，我们持续看好公司未来的业绩表现。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,577 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.03%; net profit to mother was 509 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.86%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 540 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.38%.
Comment:
The performance is gradually improving, and we look forward to the company's performance in 2024. On a quarterly basis, the company's 2023Q1-Q4 revenue was 2.78/3.56/3.56/ 587 million, respectively, with a gradual increase over the previous month. Given that the company only generated revenue from human diploid vaccines and veterinary vaccines in 2023, and the human diploid vaccine accounted for 99.97% of revenue, based on the average unit price, the company's 2023Q1-Q4 wild vaccine sales volume was about 98/125/125/207 million units, and the delivery situation continued to improve. Based on the number of batches issued, the current human diploid vaccine market accounts for about 10% of the human rabies vaccine market. As the gold standard for mad vaccines as determined by WHO, there is still plenty of room for improvement in the penetration rate. We continue to be optimistic about the company's future performance.
Partnering with HillEvax to promote overseas commercialization of the hexavalent norovirus vaccine. The company signed an “Exclusive License Agreement” with HillEvax on January 6, 2024. The company authorized HillEvax to develop, produce and commercialize the recombinant hexavalent norovirus vaccine and its derivatives in regions other than China (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). The transaction amount includes a down payment of US$15 million, development and sales milestone payments of up to US$255.5 million, and royalties as a single-digit percentage of actual annual net sales. The down payment is expected to be reflected in net profit due to mother in 2024. The implementation of overseas licensing cooperation is expected to accelerate the overseas launch of hexavalent Noro products, and also reflects the company's leading R&D and innovation capabilities.
Shareholder returns were strengthened, and the company's dividend distribution ratio in 2023 was greatly increased. The company's 2023 dividend plan is calculated based on a total share capital of 132,880,674 shares. A cash dividend of 20 yuan (tax included) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares, and a total cash dividend of 265,761,348.00 yuan is distributed. Based on the closing price on March 29, 2023, the company's 2023 dividend rate is 3.6%, which is at the forefront of the industry among vaccine companies that have announced the 2023 dividend plan.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 18.64/20.51/2,512 million, net profit to mother of 707/7.70/929 million yuan, EPS of 5.25/5.71/6.90 yuan, corresponding PE of 12/11/9 times. Considering that the company's current valuation level is lower than the industry average and the company's return to shareholders continues to increase, we believe that the company has high investment value, and the first coverage gives the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product sales fall short of expectations, new product development falls short of expectations, compliance risks.
