There was a high increase in performance in 2023, maintaining steady expansion under a high base, maintaining that “buy” rated companies achieved revenue of 1.78 billion yuan (YoY, +41.0%) in 2023, and achieved net profit of 472 million yuan (+73.6%) to mother. Looking at a single quarter, 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 550 million yuan (+29.2%) and net profit of 160 million yuan (+51.6%) to mother. With major customer bonds and strong manufacturing levels, the company's revenue and performance growth rate is impressive. We raised our 2024-2025 profit forecast and added the 2026 forecast. The net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 5.75/7.15/847 million yuan (the original net profit value of 2024-2025 was 522/604 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 5.53/6.87/8.15 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 12.6/10.1/8.5 times PE, capacity expansion+high-quality customer binding. The company has sufficient growth momentum and maintains a “buy” rating.
Revenue: The share of stainless steel thermos revenue continues to rise. Overseas revenue growth is mainly driven by the company's exports of stainless steel vacuum insulated vessels in 2023. By product, the company's revenue from stainless steel vacuum thermos products in 2023 was 1,688 billion yuan (+41.14% year over year), and the revenue share further increased by 0.12 pct to 95.09%. By region, revenue growth in overseas markets was mainly driven by growth. Overseas revenue was 1,688 billion yuan (+41.69%), and the share of revenue increased 0.49pct to 95.07%. In terms of product volume and price, we split the sales volume and revenue of metal products. The company's metal products industry product revenue was 1,725 billion yuan (+40.33%), product sales volume was 38.1295 million units (+17.64% year over year), and the unit price of corresponding products was 45.2 yuan/piece (+23.0% year over year). The volume and price of the company's products all increased significantly year-on-year, driving performance growth.
Profitability: In 2023 and 2023Q4, the company's gross and net interest rates increased significantly year-on-year. The gross margin in 2023 was 40.7% (+6.5pct), the gross margin of stainless steel vacuum thermos products was 40.89% (+6.88% year over year), and the gross margin of overseas business was 40.68% (+7.32% year over year). In terms of the cost ratio, the company's period expense ratio was 9.1% (+1.5pct), and the sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was 1.6%/4.4%/3.8%/-0.7%, respectively. Under the combined influence, the company's net interest rate increased 5.1 pct to 26.6% year on year. Looking at a single quarter, 2023Q4's gross margin was 43.7% (+5.5pct); the period expense ratio was 12.1% (+2.4pct). Under the combined influence, the company's net interest rate increased by 4.3pct year-on-year to 28.9%.
Company highlights: Vietnam's production capacity is about to be put into operation, and the company is expected to benefit more than enough from the production side: The company's “Vietnam produces 13.5 million stainless steel vacuum cups per year” project may be put into operation in 2024. The expansion of overseas production capacity enhances the company's ability to accept orders and establishes a competitive advantage in the industry with low labor and low trade barriers. Client: The company is deeply tied to PMI. The customer revenue for 2023 is expected to be 1,507 billion yuan (+75.2% year over year), accounting for 84.9% of revenue (+16.6pct year on year). As of February 2024, the sales momentum of Stanley, a subsidiary of PMI, was still strong, and product popularity was transmitted back to the domestic market. In terms of the domestic market, according to Jiuqian platform data, Stanley thermos mug sales in January/February 2024 were +631%/+618%, respectively. We expect that Stanley will continue to maintain a rapid development trend in 2024 with its strong ability to create blockbusters and high market brand influence. Combined with Jiayi shares, the company is expected to benefit more than enough from this.
Risk warning: Terminal demand has declined sharply, industry competition has worsened, and product promotion has fallen short of expectations.