PCB 行业龙头厂商，有望受益AI 终端。通讯用板业务和消费电子及计算机用板业务作为公司主要业务，占总营收超95%。2023 年以来，手机及消费电子行业进入周期景气下行阶段，致公司短期业绩承压。随着折叠屏手机、AI 手机、智能眼镜、AIPC 等新产品推出，消费电子产业链正迎来新一轮创新发展周期，凭借多年深耕PCB 行业积累的客户资源及技术优势，公司业绩发展有望恢复。Incidents:
Peng Ding Holdings released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 32.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.45%; net profit to mother was 3.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.41%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 3.170 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.09%. Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 11.610 billion yuan, up 1.67% year on year and 30.15% month on month; net profit to mother was 1,443 billion yuan, down 17.43% year on year, up 39.73% month on month.
Comment:
Leading manufacturers in the PCB industry are expected to benefit from AI terminals. The communication board business and the consumer electronics and computer board business are the company's main businesses, accounting for more than 95% of total revenue. Since 2023, the mobile phone and consumer electronics industry has entered a downward phase of cyclical boom, putting pressure on the company's short-term performance. With the launch of new products such as folding screen phones, AI phones, smart glasses, and AIPC, the consumer electronics industry chain is entering a new cycle of innovation and development. With the customer resources and technical advantages accumulated over many years of deep cultivation in the PCB industry, the company's performance development is expected to resume.
Accelerate the layout of cars and servers to create space for future development. In the automotive sector, the development of automotive electronics has created a new growth curve for the PCB industry. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the company's lidar and radar high-frequency antenna boards began mass production; thanks to increased shipments of ADAS Domain Controllers, automotive radars, and automotive BMS boards, the company's automotive products grew rapidly. Furthermore, the company is actively deploying overseas production capacity. The first phase of the Thai plant project mainly focuses on automotive server products, and is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2025. Facing growing demand for AI servers, the company continues to improve its thick plate HDI capabilities. Currently, the main product board layer has been upgraded to 16 to 20L or above.
Co-developed with leading major customers to keep up with the cutting edge of technology. The company accurately grasps the direction of product and technology research and development by arranging cutting-edge products and technologies in advance and collaborating with customers. In 2023, the new technologies developed by the company include applications in various fields such as new energy sources, in-vehicle (CCS), dynamic folding terminals, 5G communication module technology, optical communication modules, low-orbit satellite receiving antenna boards, and AI server boards. In response to the demand for increased computing power under the AI wave, the company accelerated the completion of technical layouts such as high-speed mixed thick plate manufacturing processes, advanced impedance and fixed depth back drilling, cavities, and embedded components.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 39.31/44.39/4.859 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, respectively, corresponding PE of 13/12/11 times, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic risks; downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies
