H.B. Fuller Company (NYSE:FUL) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$810m were in line with what the analysts predicted, H.B. Fuller surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.55 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
NYSE:FUL Earnings and Revenue Growth April 1st 2024
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from H.B. Fuller's six analysts is for revenues of US$3.62b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 36% to US$3.84. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.62 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$90.50, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values H.B. Fuller at US$115 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$70.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that H.B. Fuller's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.0% over the past five years. Compare this to the 127 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like H.B. Fuller is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around H.B. Fuller's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple H.B. Fuller analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for H.B. Fuller that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
富勒公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:FUL)上週公佈了其最新的第一季度業績,這是投資者深入了解業務表現是否符合預期的好時機。總體業績是積極的——儘管8.1億美元的收入與分析師的預測一致,但富勒驚訝地實現了每股0.55美元的法定利潤,略高於預期。根據結果,分析師更新了他們的盈利模式,很高興知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了巨大變化,或者業務是否照舊。我們認爲,讀者會發現分析師對明年最新(法定)業績後的預測很有趣。
紐約證券交易所:FUL 2024年4月1日的收益和收入增長
考慮到最新業績,富勒的六位分析師目前的共識是,2024年的收入爲36.2億美元。這將反映其收入在過去12個月中合理增長了3.2%。預計每股法定收益將激增36%,至3.84美元。然而,在最新業績公佈之前,分析師曾預計2024年的收入爲36.3億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲3.62美元。從他們新的每股收益估計來看,分析師似乎對該業務更加看好。
90.50美元的共識目標股價沒有重大變化,這表明每股收益前景的改善不足以對股票估值產生長期的積極影響。但是,固定單一價格目標可能是不明智的,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師目標股價的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估計範圍,看看對公司的估值是否有任何分歧。目前,最看漲的分析師估值富勒爲每股115美元,而最看跌的分析師估值爲70.00美元。對該股肯定有一些不同的看法,但在我們看來,估計範圍還不夠廣,不足以暗示情況不可預測。
當然,看待這些預測的另一種方法是將它們與行業本身聯繫起來。很明顯,人們預計富勒的收入增長將大幅放緩,預計到2024年底的收入按年計算將增長4.2%。相比之下,過去五年的歷史增長率爲6.0%。相比之下,該行業中其他127家擁有分析師報道的公司,預計這些公司的收入將以每年4.5%的速度增長。考慮到預期的增長放緩,富勒預計將以與整個行業大致相同的增長速度。
底線
對我們來說,最大的收穫是共識的每股收益上調,這表明人們對富勒明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。他們還重申了收入預期,預計該公司的增長速度將與整個行業大致相同。共識目標股價沒有實際變化,這表明根據最新估計,該業務的內在價值沒有發生任何重大變化。
話雖如此,公司收益的長期軌跡比明年重要得多。根據多位富勒分析師的估計,到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
還值得注意的是,我們發現了 H.B. Fuller 的一個警告信號,你需要考慮這個信號。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。