维持“增持”评 级：公司2023 年报实现营收2102 亿元，同比-9.09%，归母净利润38.63 亿元，同比-51.48%，扣非归母净利38.63 亿元，同比+5.84%，符合预期。考虑到材料板块盈利承压，我们下调24-25 年净利润预测至39.87、46.52 亿元（-16.23、-26.71 亿元），增加26 年盈利预测50.42 亿元，根据可比公司24 年8.08x PE，下调目标价至3.81 港元。Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2023 annual report. The volume and price of cement in the basic building materials sector are under pressure, the volume of the new materials sector is increasing but profits are under pressure, and overseas orders for engineering services have increased.
Summary:
Maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating: The company's 2023 annual report achieved revenue of 210.2 billion yuan, -9.09% YoY, net profit attributable to mother of 3.863 billion yuan, or -51.48% YoY; net profit not attributable to mother was 3.863 billion yuan, +5.84% YoY, in line with expectations. Considering the pressure on profits in the materials sector, we lowered our 24-25 net profit forecast to $3,987, 4.652 billion (-16.23 billion yuan, -2,671 billion yuan), increased the 26-year profit forecast by $5,042 billion, and lowered the target price to HK$3.81 based on comparable companies' 24-year 8.08x PE.
In the basic building materials sector, the volume and price of cement are under pressure. In 2023, the company achieved 309 million tons of cement and clinker sales, which was greater than the 0.7% drop in sales. It was determined that under the impact of a cliff-style decline in industry demand, the company, as an industry leader, sacrificed part of its sales volume in order to maintain the balance between supply and demand in various regions. The company's cement and clinker prices were 271 yuan/ton for the whole year, -18.4%. After competition for clinker along the river intensified in 23Q2, cement price competition gradually spilled over to South China and other regions, causing overall cement prices to be weak year over year. We judge that the company's Q4 cement profit has turned a month-on-month loss into a profit, mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency. In the future, the cement industry will accelerate carbon trading, which is expected to accelerate the clean-up of backward production capacity.
The volume of the new materials sector has increased, but profits are under pressure, and overseas orders for engineering services have increased. 1) New materials sector:
In '23, the company's new materials sector achieved revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, achieving net profit of 3.429 billion yuan, or -34.3%. Among them, the gypsum board business achieved a steady increase in price. Sales volumes of glass fiber, blades, diaphragms, diaphragms, etc. were +19%, +5%, +53%, and +92.5%, respectively, but prices were -25%, -5%, -15%, and -41%, respectively. The company's leading position in the field of new materials is reflected in good growth in various business segments, but the new materials business generally faced price reduction pressure throughout the year. 2) Engineering service section:
It achieved revenue of 41.5 billion yuan for the whole year, and realized net profit of 1,451 billion yuan, +3.3% over the same period. Demand for technical improvement in cement engineering was active in 23 years. At the same time, the company's overseas expansion process accelerated. Overseas orders also increased 55% in 23, and the main cement technology and equipment engineering industry maintained the largest share in the world.
Financial indicators are stable, and the balance sheet is solid. In 2023, the company's operating cash flow was 29 billion yuan, +8% year on year, the company's receivables were 81.9 billion yuan, -3.3 billion yuan year on year, and annual financial expenses fell to 5.1 billion yuan, -13% year on year, and balance sheet quality continued to improve.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, rising raw coal prices