Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company's revenue was 5.341 billion yuan, up 18.26% year on year; net profit to mother was 1,481 billion yuan, up 37.66% year on year. The performance was in line with expectations.
Comment:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the increase in the blood products and vaccine business was significant. Blood products: The company's revenue in the blood products sector in 2023 was 2,926 million, an increase of 9.22% over the previous year, including albumin of 1,057 million (+6.97%), static propylene of 845 million (+8.96%), and other blood products of 1.25 billion (+11.87%). In addition, the company achieved 1342.32 tons of pulp harvesting in 2023, an increase of 19.59% over the previous year. The continuous increase in pulp collection lays a solid foundation for the company's future performance growth; Vaccines: The vaccine sector's revenue in 2023 was 2.405 billion yuan, up 32.30% year on year; of these, influenza vaccine sales were 2.403 billion, up 32.19% year on year. The average unit price of the company's vaccine products is about 124 yuan, which is basically the same as in 2022. Quadrivalent influenza is still the main force of the company's vaccine products. Considering that the clinical application of blood products continues to expand in the future and that there is still a lot of room for improvement in the penetration rate of influenza vaccination, we continue to be optimistic about the company's future performance.
We value shareholder returns, and the dividend ratio is among the highest in the industry. The company's 2023 dividend distribution plan is based on 1,828,780,926 shares, and a cash dividend of 3 yuan (tax included) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares, totaling 548,634,277.80 yuan. Based on the closing price on March 29, 2024, the company's dividend rate for 2023 is 1.49%, and the dividend rate is among the highest in the industry.
Develop the third growth pole, and the monoclonal antibody pipeline is about to be realized. The company's shareholding company Hualan Gene has obtained clinical trial approvals for 10 monoclonal antibody varieties. Among them, bevacizumab has submitted an application for product marketing registration and is expected to obtain production approval in the second half of 2024; adalimumab, trastuzumab, rituximab, and denomumab are carrying out phase III clinical studies. Monoclonal antibodies are expected to become the company's third business pole, providing growth impetus for the company's subsequent development.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 63.91/74.72/8.748 billion, net profit to mother of 17.09/20.47/2.444 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.93/1.12/1.34 yuan, corresponding to the current market value PE 22/18/15 times. The company is a leading enterprise in the biological products industry, covering many high-quality tracks such as blood products, vaccines, and monoclonal antibodies. The future development prospects are broad, and the company values shareholder returns. The current stock price does not fully reflect the company's value, so we give the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product sales fall short of expectations, new product launch progress falls short of expectations, etc.