The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoyuan Securities released a research report saying that batch delivery and even mass production expectations of domestic and foreign humanoid robot manufacturers are concentrated in 2024-2025. With the rapid development of AI, the arrival of artificial intelligence may be ahead of schedule. Software and algorithms are necessary conditions to determine the implementation of the first intelligent humanoid robot that meets consumer needs, and large-scale hardware cost reduction after mass production is the key to increasing the penetration rate of humanoid robots.
Guoyuan Securities's main views are as follows:
The hardware is compatible with commercial products, and algorithm iteration continues to enhance the certainty of implementation of embodied intelligence
Judging from the current progress of demos from major manufacturers, the hardware solutions for humanoid robots are basically defined. The main hardware is commercial products corresponding to the market. The pain point is cost reduction, which is expected to be achieved through large-scale mass production; the current difficulty is that there is still no ideal performance at the level of corresponding algorithms and software. In 2023, there is still no “embodied intelligence” that truly meets the needs of end consumers and has strong versatility. On the software and algorithm side, on March 9, 2024, Figure01's presentation made us realize that big language models have a significant catalytic effect on embodied intelligence, and that the Groot project launched by Nvidia at the TC conference is a general basic model provided by humanoid robot learning, which is expected to lower the threshold for the birth of embodied intelligence.
Domestic focus is on hardware updates, and foreign countries focus on algorithm iteration. The overall expected mass production time is 2024-2025
Domestic manufacturers: The commercial mass production schedule has been concentrated in the past two years, and the cost has been controlled within hundreds of thousands of yuan. There are potential application scenarios in both industry and lifestyle. The demo machine focuses more on breakthroughs in sports performance and hardware performance. Judging from the latest products available, domestic manufacturers (with the exception of Xiaomi) have basically launched the latest humanoid robot demos. Judging from the commercialization progress, sales and delivery of Preferred Choice Walker X, Yushu H1, and Fourier GR-1 have already begun. The Kepler Pioneer plans to mass produce and sell it in the second half of 2024, and the Dacheng XR4 is expected to enter consumer households in 2025.
Looking at the long-term sales price, domestic manufacturers expect the cost of the whole machine to be kept within a few hundred thousand yuan after mass production. Among them, Yu Shu expects the retail price to be within a few hundred thousand yuan. Zhiyuan Expedition A1 hopes to keep the cost within 200,000 yuan, and Kepler Pioneer estimates that the foreign sales price will be 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars. Judging from application scenarios, domestic manufacturers' products currently face both industrial and consumer scenarios. Among them, Walkers, Xiaopeng PX5, Zhiyuan Expedition A1, and Kepler Pioneer mainly face industrialization scenarios. Preferably, Walker X, Xiaomi Cyber One, and Dacheng XR4 are more lifestyle scenarios. Fourier GR-1 has application opportunities in both scenarios.
Foreign manufacturers: The mass production period is concentrated in 2025 and later. The application scenarios are mainly in the industrial field. Product progress focuses on fluency and interactivity with intelligence. Judging from the commercialization progress, the overall overseas mass production delivery schedule is unclear. Among them, Digit plans to deliver the first batch in 2024 and be fully launched and sold in 2025; Tesla's 2023Q4 performance conference indicated that Optimus plans to deliver in batches in 2025. Atlas existed as a humanoid robot research platform before entering automobile factories in 2024, and the commercialization process is slow.
Judging from the forward sales price, Digit currently sells for 250,000 US dollars, and Optimus plans to carry out dangerous, repetitive and boring tasks in the future under 20,000 US dollars. Looking at application scenarios, foreign humanoid robot manufacturers currently mainly focus on industrial scenarios. Among them, Digit focuses on the logistics industry. Atlas and Optimus currently train a lot in factory manufacturing scenarios, and Sanctuary AI's Phoenix is also used in medical scenarios in addition to industrial scenarios.
After implementing the smart implementation, pay attention to investment opportunities for mass production of which components
Mass delivery and even mass production of humanoid robot manufacturers at home and abroad are expected to be concentrated in 2024-2025. With the rapid development of AI, the arrival of artificial intelligence may be ahead of schedule. Software and algorithms are necessary conditions to determine the implementation of the first intelligent humanoid robot that meets consumer needs, and large-scale hardware cost reduction after mass production is the key to increasing the penetration rate of humanoid robots.
The actuator generally focuses on motors and dexterous hand solutions. There is a wide demand for frameless torque motors at the motor level, so it is recommended to pay attention to Buke Co., Ltd. (688160.SH). Looking at the current point, dexterous hands are not only a necessary condition for humanoid robots to participate in precision activities, but are also a common choice for most manufacturers. Among them, hollow cup motors have characteristics such as compact structure, high accuracy, and high energy density, and can be adapted to robot dexterous hands. It is recommended to focus on Mingzhi Electric (603728.SH) and Jiangsu Raleigh (300660.SZ).
The sensing layer generally focuses on vision and sensing. Vision is mainly based on the TOF method and multi-vision solutions, and some manufacturers supplement it with lidar/ultrasonic sensors; in terms of force sensing, six-dimensional force sensors have great investment value, so it is recommended to focus on Coli Sensing (603662.SH).
Risk warning
R&D progress falls short of expectations, cost reduction falls short of expectations, global macroeconomic sentiment falls short of expectations, and related policies fall short of expectations