Matters:
The company announced its 2023 results, achieving full year operating income of 82.43 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year (restated, same below); net profit to mother of 450 million yuan, an increase of 41.7% over the previous year.
Commentary:
Supply chain capacity continues to improve, and member retail stores have reached new highs. The company's trading business segment achieved revenue of 81.62 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5% over the previous year. By category, consumer electronics revenue was 44.89 billion yuan, up 19% year on year; agricultural means of production revenue was 12.26 billion yuan, down 22.3% year on year. The planting and farming market fluctuated greatly, and the company took the initiative to reduce the share of this business; household appliances revenue was 12.31 billion yuan, down 11.5% year on year; transportation and travel revenue was 7.61 billion yuan, down 6.5% year on year, and the company actively contracted part of the low-profit traditional auto parts business; home building materials revenue was 2.99 billion yuan, down 6.3% year on year; alcohol and beverage revenue was 1.35 billion yuan, year on year. Decreased by 32%. In 2023, the company will continue to deepen cooperation with supply chain companies, strengthen brand ecosystem construction, such as the transportation sector, and cooperate deeply with BYD, GAC Aian, and Nacha.
At the same time, we have strengthened the construction of our own brands, such as Zhonghuida Air Conditioning, which focuses on extremely cost-effective products, and achieved breakthroughs in integrated production and marketing. By the end of 2023, the company had 237,000 registered member retail stores, an increase of 15.0% year on year, and 91,000 retail stores with active members, an increase of 19.1% over the previous year.
Member service capabilities have been optimized, and the willingness to pay has increased. The company's service business segment achieved revenue of 650 million yuan, down 17.6% year on year. Among them, store SaaS+ subscription revenue was 550 million yuan, up 5.3% year on year, and merchant solution revenue was 92 million yuan, down 64.5% year on year, mainly because the company made contraction adjustments to the low-margin precision marketing and software customization business. By the end of 2023, the number of the company's SaaS+ subscribers was 132,000, up 15.6% year on year, including 48,000 paid users, up 61.4% year on year. The company focuses on the sales promotion business of member retail stores. Member service capabilities have been strengthened. Throughout the year, 35 core brand factories have launched more than 456 joint promotions to help improve the operating efficiency of member stores. At the same time, we developed our own Qiancheng series of service products and released AI models to meet the diverse needs of customers.
The equity incentive plan shows the company's confidence in growth. In April '23, the company awarded approximately 4.84 million restricted shares to 494 employees, all of whom were incentivized to core executives. In December of the same year, the company further granted 4.157 million shares to 259 selected holders. The unlocking condition was that net profit returned to mother in 2026 increased by more than 100% compared to 2023. The company's equity incentive plan demonstrates management's confidence in future business growth.
Investment proposal: Considering the macroeconomic impact and adjustments in the company's internal product structure, we lowered the company's 24-25 revenue forecast to 84/86.3 billion yuan (previous value of 1004/116.6 billion yuan), adding an additional 26-year revenue forecast of 88.5 billion yuan; estimated net profit to mother of 58/ 750 million yuan (previous value of 6.6/870 million yuan) for 24-25, and an additional profit forecast of 950 million yuan for 26 years. Refer to the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry, and maintain the “Recommended” rating, with a target market value of HK$19.3 billion for 24 years, corresponding to a target price of HK$34.
Risk warning: Economic growth falls short of expectations, consumer confidence is declining, and competition is intensifying.