Incidents:
China Taibao released its 2023 annual report. It achieved a total annual revenue of 323.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, and realized net profit to mother of 27.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%, and realized operating profit of 35.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. In 2023, the Group's intrinsic value was $529.493 billion, up 1.9% year on year; achieved NBV of 10.962 billion yuan, up 19.1% year on year; weighted average ROE was 11.4%, down 7.7pct year on year.
Comment:
Premium income from the life insurance business grew steadily, and the positive growth of NBV led to an increase in the value rate of the new business.
In 2023, the company's life insurance business achieved premium income of 252,817 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year, of which the premium income of the new insurance business was 84.03 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year. In 2023, the company adjusted the return on investment of 4.5% (5% in 2022), and the risk discount rate was 9% (11% in 2022). Under the new assumptions, the company's NBV was 10.962 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1% year over year, driving the new business value rate to increase by 1.7 pct to 13.3%.
Individual insurance channels have determined the transformation and development of “long-term aviation”, team capabilities have been upgraded, banking insurance channels have insisted on high-quality development, and value contributions have increased. In 2023, the company's individual insurance channel premium revenue was 195.478 billion yuan, up 3.01% year-on-year, accounting for 77.32% of total premium revenue. The capacity of the agent team continues to be upgraded, and the production capacity of core manpower has been greatly increased. In 2023, the monthly first-year premium per person for corporate insurance marketers was 12,837 yuan, up 51.8% year on year, and the monthly first-year premium per core employee was 43,503 yuan, up 26.6% year on year; monthly per capita first-year commission income was 6051 yuan, up 46.3% year on year. The premium revenue from the banking insurance channel was 38.069 billion yuan, up 12.54% year on year. Of these, the new insurance premium payment period was 9.024 billion yuan, up 170.2% year on year, and channel NBV increased 115.6% year on year.
Premium income in the property insurance business grew rapidly, and COR increased slightly. The original premium income of the company's property insurance business in 2023 was 18.342 billion yuan, up 11.4% year on year, and COR was 97.7%, up 0.8 pct year on year, but it was still able to maintain underwriting profits. Among them, car insurance achieved premium income of 103,514 billion yuan, an increase of 5.63% year on year, and COR increased 1.1 pct to 97.6% year on year. In 2023, the company explored a new NEV business model and integrated its comprehensive layout into the automotive industry ecosystem, driving a 54.7% year-on-year increase in NEV insurance premium income.
The scale of the Group's investment assets grew steadily, and the total return on investment declined. In 2023, the Group's investment assets were 2.25 trillion yuan, up 11.28% year on year, and achieved total investment income of 52.237 billion yuan, down 28.3% year on year. The net, total, and comprehensive return on investment was 4.0%/2.6%/2.7%, with year-on-year changes of -0.3 pct/-1.5 pct/0.4 pct.
Investment advice: Due to increased equity market fluctuations in 2023, compounded by the impact of the new accounting standards on the company's performance, the 2024-2025 forecast net profit of the company was lowered to 30.152 billion yuan and 33.335 billion yuan, and a forecast value of 36.77 billion yuan was introduced to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: the company's performance fell short of expectations, equity market fluctuations increased, and policy changes occurred.