Despite announcing strong earnings, Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & Energy Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:688548) stock was sluggish. Our analysis uncovered some concerning factors that we believe the market might be paying attention to.
A Closer Look At Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 0.25. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥565m despite its profit of CN¥319.6m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥565m, this year, indicates high risk.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd's Profit Performance
Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. The good news is that, its earnings per share increased by 21% in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd at this point in time. For example, Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & EnergyLtd's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.