Net profit to mother increased by 81% year on year, and leading car companies performed well. BYD's revenue for 23 years was 602.32 billion yuan, +42% year over year, achieving vehicle sales of 3.024 million units, +67.8% year over year, driving automobile-related business revenue of 483.5 billion yuan, +49% year over year, and 31.9% of the company's NEV share in 2023, up 4.8pct year on year, to a mother of 30.4 billion yuan, or +80.7% year over year. Looking at a single quarter, 23Q4 revenue was 180.4 billion yuan, +15%/+11% YoY, and 8.67 billion yuan, or +19%/-17% YoY. Overall, with a multi-faceted brand layout, the advantage of continuous scale expansion, and strong ability to control capital in the industrial chain, BYD's profitability is steady.
The gross margin on the vehicle side was +2.6 pct compared to the same period, and continued emphasis was placed on R&D. The 23-year gross profit margin was 20.21%, +3.17pct year on year, of which the gross profit margin for automobiles was 23.0%, +2.63%, and the net interest rate to mother was 5.0%, +1.1pct; in terms of rates, the 23-year company's sales/management/R&D/finance rate was 4.19%/6.57%/-0.24%, +0.64/-0.13/+2.17/+0.14pct; of these, the increase in sales expenses is expected to be dealer rebate subsidies at the end of the year; the increase in R&D expenses means that the company continues to focus on R&D investment (Cloud, Tenjin Eye) , Yi Sifang, etc.), and making R&D reserves for high-level smart driving (Xuanji architecture released in January).
The profit of bicycles is stable under the power of strong control. Excluding BYD's electronic impact estimates of 23Q4 bicycle revenue of 151,000 yuan, -20,000 yuan month-on-month (price reduction effect), bicycle return of 0.85 million yuan, -0.29 million yuan month-on-month, bicycle buckles were not 90,000 yuan, -0.15,000 yuan month-on-month; if Q4 dealer rebate influence is added, profit levels are expected to stabilize; in the context of price reduction, thanks to solid cost control capability+release of scale effects+ decline in lithium carbonate+increase in export share (+37% month-on-month in Q4 exports), etc. More stable than ever.
Looking forward to the future market: Honor Edition released a stable basic market, and the high-end and export strategy continued to advance. 1) Dynasty Ocean Basic Edition: Since the beginning of the year, the company has released Honor models one after another, with outstanding cost performance, and sales are expected to rise steadily; in terms of high-end, looking up (stable monthly sales of 1000 vehicles +), Tense (stable D9, new N7 models will soon be launched), Equation Panther's sales are steadily promoting high-end, and the continuous introduction of new models is expected to continue to break through; at the same time, the company increased investment in automobile intelligence; export side: the company exported 252,000 vehicles in '23, compared to +458%, compared to +458% in '24. Cumulative monthly exports of 59,000 vehicles, year-on-year +134%; Profitability level: export volume+increase in share of high-end models+stable guarantee scale effect of basic models, compounded by the low price of lithium carbonate, the company's profitability is expected to grow against the trend.
Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales fall short of expectations, and price competition in the automotive industry is fierce.
Investment advice: BYD deeply lays out Sandian technology, stabilizes the basic market for the Honor Edition model at the press conference, and accelerates the launch of the high-end process and the brand's overseas expansion process. However, considering the intensification of competition in the terminal industry, the profit forecast was lowered. The net profit for 24/25/26 is estimated to be 353/414.49.7 billion yuan (the original forecast for 24/25 was 43.5/51.8 billion yuan), corresponding EPS was 12.13/14.21/17.08 yuan (the original forecast was 14.94/17.81 yuan for 24/25), and the corresponding PE was 18/15/12x, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.