Report highlights:
The company has been deeply involved in harmonic reducers for more than 20 years. The products have broken foreign monopolies. The main products include harmonic reducers and precision components, mechatronic products, intelligent automation equipment, etc. The main downstream application fields are industrial robots, service robots, and CNC machine tools. After years of R&D investment, the company pioneered the industrial production and large-scale application of harmonic speed reducers in China, breaking the monopoly of international brands in the field of harmonic speed reducers.
Multiple fields are driving the expansion of the harmonic reducer market, and speed reducer manufacturers are ushering in new opportunities for development 1) Industrial robots: As the largest downstream application of harmonic reducers at present, industry recovery is expected to drive the volume of speed reducers. It is estimated that in 2027, the number of domestic industrial robots installed will reach 591,800 units, and the demand for harmonic reducers will reach 2.07 million units. 2) CNC machine tools: Under the resonance of the three factors of autonomy and control, the renewal cycle and industrial transformation, the machine tool industry tends to be high-end. Harmonic speed reducers can improve machine tool performance and have broad application prospects. 3) Humanoid robots: Harmonic speed reducers can be applied to multiple joint parts of humanoid robots. With mass production of humanoid robots, harmonic speed reducers are expected to usher in 10 billion incremental space.
Technology leading+capacity expansion+overseas layout, the company's competitive advantage is remarkable 1) R&D: Continuous R&D investment, independent research and development to break through technology blockades, has core technologies such as the “P tooth” design theory system, next-generation third-harmonic technology, and mechatronic coupling technology, and actively lays out mechatronic products to enrich the product spectrum. 2) Production capacity: The company issued a fixed increase plan to add an annual production capacity of 1 million units of next-generation harmonic speed reducers and 200,000 units of mechatronic products to help the company expand its market share and expand high-quality customers. 3) Overseas: A cooperation agreement was signed with Sanhua Intelligent Control to jointly fund the establishment of a joint venture in Mexico to achieve industrial linkage and mutual benefit and win-win situation, further expand high-quality customers, enhance international influence, and explore overseas markets.
Investment advice and profit forecasting
The company is based on independent R&D and innovation, optimized products, and a wide variety of products. In the future, as demand for industrial robots and industrial mother machines recovers and upgrades, and mass production of humanoid robots, the company will benefit significantly and enter a period of rapid development. It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the net profit attributable to the company's parent company shareholders is 0.84, 1.46, and 208 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding basic earnings per share are: 0.50, 0.86, and 1.23 yuan/share, respectively. According to the latest stock price estimates, the corresponding PE valuations are 264, 153, and 107 times, respectively. Considering that the company is a leader in harmonic speed reducers, it will fully benefit from the development of industrial robots, industrial mother machines and humanoid robots in the future. It will grow faster than the industry, and give the company an investment rating of “increase in wealth”.
Risk warning
The risk of increased market competition; the risk of declining industry demand; the risk of product iteration; the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; the risk of fund-raising projects falling short of expectations.