维持“增持”评级 。公司公布2023 年年报，公司实现营业收入373.71亿元（-19.45%），归母净利润42.6 亿元（-38.53%）。考虑近期煤价下行，我们下调24、25 年EPS 至2.44 元（-0.47 元）、2.69 元（-0.27 元），新增26年EPS 为2.76 元。根据可比公司2024 年平均9x PE，上调目标价至21.96元（+1.8 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Production release was limited due to the reduction in production capacity in Hequ; profits fell short of expectations due to increased accounting for Q4 management expenses; 2023 dividends were lower than expected, probably due to considerations of increasing resource acquisition in 2024.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company announced its 2023 annual report. The company achieved operating income of 37.371 billion yuan (-19.45%) and net profit of 4.26 billion yuan (-38.53%) to mother. Considering the recent decline in coal prices, we lowered EPS for 24 and 25 to 2.44 yuan (-0.47 yuan) and 2.69 yuan (-0.27 yuan), and added 26-year EPS to 2.76 yuan. According to the comparable company's 2024 average 9x PE, the target price was raised to 21.96 yuan (+1.8 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Production release was limited due to the reduction in production capacity in Hequ. In 2023, the coal production business achieved revenue of 23.798 billion yuan (-21.34%), and the coal trade business achieved revenue of 12.912 billion yuan (-17.43%). In 2023, self-produced coal production volume was 38.98 million tons (-3.92%), mainly due to the 23Q3 Hequ mine production capacity reduction falling from 16 million tons/year to 10 million tons/year; sales volume of 34.86 million tons (-5.68%). The average sales price in 2023 was 682 yuan/ton (-55 yuan/ton), the ton cost increased slightly by 2 yuan/ton to 251 yuan/ton, and the gross profit per ton was about 431 yuan/ton (-57 yuan/ton).
Q4 Profit was lower than expected due to increased accrual of management expenses. In 23Q4, the company's net profit fell 646 million to 278 million month-on-month, falling short of market expectations while revenue continued to increase month-on-month. The core of our judgment is that Q4 concentrated on management expenses (mainly labor remuneration, etc.), which increased by 400 million over the previous month; at the same time, asset impairment and credit impairment accrued 115 million yuan (23Q3 contributed 127 million).
The 2023 dividend was lower than expected, probably due to increased resource access in 2024. In 2023, the company announced a dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 30%, which is slightly lower than market expectations.
Risk warning: The macroeconomy fell short of expectations; coal prices fell more than expected.