China Merchants Port (0144.HK): Profit fell from a high level and is expected to pick up year on year in 24

華泰證券 · Mar 30

吞吐量增速放缓叠加投资收益下滑拖累23 年净利，24 年同比有望增长招商局港口发布23 年业绩：1）营业收入同比下降8.5%至114.8 亿港币；2）归母净利62.3 亿港币，同比下滑19.9%；3）完成集装箱/散货吞吐量1.4 亿标准箱/5.6 亿吨，同比增长+0.7%/+2.0%。公司宣布年末每股派息0.48港币，全年分红率46%。23 年受全球经济疲软、地缘摩擦加剧、通胀问题持续，港口吞吐量增速放缓；集运市场景气回落，来自联营公司上港集团的集运投资收益大幅减少对公司净利形成拖累。我们下调24/25 年归母净利预测19%/20%至66.1 亿/73.1 亿港币，新增26 年预测80.3 亿港币；基于6.9x24E PE，下调目标价11%至10.9 港币（公司历史三年PE 均值加1 个标准差，估值溢价主因公司盈利同比有望回升），维持“买入”评级。

珠三角吞吐量降幅同比收窄，环渤海吞吐量稳健增长23 年公司完成集装箱吞吐量1.4 亿标准箱，同比增长0.7%，海外需求疲软导致吞吐量增速进一步下滑。分区域看，2023 年公司珠三角（PRD）/长三角（YRD）/环渤海（Bohai Rim）/中国其他地区/海外吞吐量同比表现-4.7%/+0.7%/+5.5%/-5.8%/+0.6%。其中，珠三角货量下滑受深西母港业务调整以及香港市场中转业务减少影响，环渤海、长三角吞吐量表现较好主因上海港、青岛港、辽宁港吞吐量在低基数上复苏。收入端，珠三角/长三角/环渤海/ 中国其他地区/ 海外收入分别同比-19.7%/-53.2%/-1.2%/-0.4%/+11.1%，长三角收入大幅下滑主因出售宁波大榭45%股权，海外业务收入增速较好。

港口业务利润率同比提升，集运市场景气下行使公司投资收益承压23 年公司港口业务EBIT/EBITDA 分别为40.8/61.4 亿港币，同比下滑-3.2%/-4.6% ， EBIT/EBITDA 利润率分别为38.2%/57.5% ，同比增长2.6/3.1pct。受益于港口装卸费用率的提升及费用结构的改善，港口业务利润率实现增长。23 年实现投资收益52.9 亿港币，同比下降28.6%，主因集运市场景气回落，运价下行压制上港集团旗下集装箱航运业务投资收益。

中长期全球港口布局潜力有望释放，24 年吞吐量有望实现同比增长海外港口营业利润占公司总利润比重同比增长3.0pct 至31.0%。随着海外需求的逐步恢复，中长期我们看好招商局港口的全球港口布局潜力有望逐步释放，海外业务利润贡献能力将进一步提升。展望24 年，随着外贸进出口稳中向好，我们预计公司港口吞吐量有望恢复个位数同比增长，国内港口费率或保持平稳，海外港口费率有望稳步提升。

风险提示：1）全球经济衰退；2）港口吞吐量增长低于我们的预期；3）投资收益低于我们的预期；4）地缘政治风险。

The slowdown in throughput growth combined with the decline in investment income dragged down 23-year net profit, and China Merchants Port released 23-year results: 1) operating income fell 8.5% year over year to HK$11.48 billion; 2) net profit to mother was HK$6.23 billion, down 19.9% year on year; 3) completed container/bulk throughput of 140 million TEUs per 550 million tons, up +0.7%/+2.0% year over year. The company announced a year-end dividend of HK$0.48 per share, with a dividend rate of 46% for the whole year. Port throughput growth slowed in 23 years due to the weakening global economy, increased geographical friction, and continued inflation; the shipping market sentiment declined, and the sharp decline in shipping investment income from the associated company SIPG weighed down on the company's net profit. We lowered our 24/25 net profit forecast by 19%/20% to HK$6.61 billion/ HK$7.31 billion, adding a 26-year forecast of HK$8.03 billion; based on 6.9x24E PE, the target price was lowered by 11% to HK$10.9 (the average PE value of the company's three-year history plus 1 standard deviation, and the valuation premium is expected to rebound year-on-year due mainly to the company's profit expected to rebound year-on-year).

The decline in throughput in the Pearl River Delta narrowed year on year. The Bohai Rim throughput grew steadily in 23 years, and the company completed a container throughput of 140 million TEUs, an increase of 0.7% year over year. Weak overseas demand led to a further decline in throughput growth. Looking at the subregions, the company's Pearl River Delta (PRD) /Yangtze River Delta (YRD) /Bohai Rim (Bohai Rim) /other regions/overseas throughput in China was -4.7%/+0.7%/+5.5%/-5.8%/+0.6% year-on-year in 2023. Among them, the decline in cargo volume in the Pearl River Delta was affected by the adjustment of the Shenzhen home port business and the decline in transit business in the Hong Kong market. The good throughput performance of the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta was mainly due to the recovery in throughput at Shanghai Port, Qingdao Port, and Liaoning Port at a low base. On the revenue side, Pearl Delta/Yangtze Delta/Bohai Rim, and other regions of China/ overseas revenue were -19.7%/-53.2%/-1.2%/-0.4%/+11.1%, respectively. The sharp decline in revenue in the Yangtze River Delta was mainly due to the sale of 45% shares in Ningbo, and overseas business revenue growth was relatively good.

The profit margin of the port business increased year on year. Under the shipping market boom, the company's port business EBIT/EBITDA was 40.8/6.14 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively in '23, down -3.2%/-4.6% year on year. EBIT/EBITDA profit margins were 38.2%/57.5%, respectively, up 2.6/3.1 pct year on year. Benefiting from the increase in the port handling fee rate and the improvement of the cost structure, the profit margin of the port business increased. Investment income of HK$5.29 billion was achieved in '23, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%. Mainly due to the decline in shipping market sentiment, declining freight rates suppressed investment income from SIPG's container shipping business.

The medium- to long-term global port layout potential is expected to be unleashed, and throughput is expected to increase year-on-year in 24. Overseas port operating profit accounts for a year-on-year increase of 3.0 pct to 31.0% of the company's total profit. With the gradual recovery of overseas demand, we are optimistic that the global port layout potential of China Merchants Port will gradually be unleashed in the medium to long term, and the ability to contribute to overseas business profits will be further enhanced. Looking ahead to 24 years, as foreign trade imports and exports stabilize, we expect the company's port throughput to resume single-digit year-on-year growth, domestic port rates may remain stable, and overseas port rates are expected to rise steadily.

Risk Alerts: 1) Global Economic Recession; 2) Port Throughput Growth Fewer Than We Expected; 3) Investment Returns Lower Than We Expected; 4) Geopolitical Risks.

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招商局港口(0144.HK)：盈利高位回落 24年同比有望回升

China Merchants Port (0144.HK): Profit fell from a high level and is expected to pick up year on year in 24

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