Monday April 1st

Keywords: China Caixin manufacturing PMI, US ISM manufacturing PMI; Hong Kong stock market closed

On Monday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for March, the US ISM manufacturing PMI for March, the final value of S&P's global manufacturing PMI for March, and the monthly construction expenditure rate for February.

In February, Caixin's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.9, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It has been expanding for four consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing boom continues to improve. On March 31, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in March, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.8%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range.

In terms of delivery data, NEV companies such as Tesla, BYD, and “Wei Xiaoli” have begun to release delivery data for the first quarter.

In the last quarter of 2023, BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's best-selling tram manufacturer, so the delivery data of the two car companies will receive investors' attention.

Tesla will release delivery data for the first quarter of 2024 as early as the same day, and then the profit situation for the first quarter will be announced on April 17. Even before it released key data, several Wall Street analysts lowered their expectations for delivery data and further lowered their share price targets due to weak demand and increased competition.

Also, due to the Easter holidays, the Hong Kong stock market was closed for one day, and southbound and northbound trading was closed.

Tuesday, April 2nd

Keywords: US JoLTs job vacancies, US factory order monthly rate

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce revised values for JoLTs job vacancies in February, monthly factory order rate for February, and monthly rate for durable goods orders in February.

The JOLTS report is one of the labor indicators that US Treasury Secretary Yellen values most when serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This indicator is also labor market data that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivered a speech on the banking industry, and another Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will also deliver a speech on the same day.

Also, the 2024 China Humanoid Robot Ecology Conference will be held in Shanghai.

Wednesday April 3rd

Keywords: China Caixin Services PMI; US ADP employment numbers, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, API/EIA crude oil inventory

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce ADP employment numbers for March, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for March, final S&P global services PMI for March, and API/EIA crude oil inventory for the week up to March 29; China will announce the March Caixin Services PMI; and Hong Kong, China will announce the annual retail sales rate for February.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will deliver a speech, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meister will deliver a speech on the economic outlook, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly will attend a fireside conversation, and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams will host a discussion.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$Mobile-health Network Solutions (MNDR.US)$It will be available today.

Thursday April 4

Keywords: number of initial jobless claims in the US, number of layoffs at challenger companies; Powell; Hong Kong stock, A-share market closure

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week up to March 30, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in March, the March global supply chain pressure index, the February trade balance, and EIA gas inventories for the week ending March 29.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the 2024 Business, Government, and Society Forum hosted by Stanford School of Business. Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivered a speech on America's economic prospects and monetary policy. Another Federal Reserve Governor Barr will also deliver a speech. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck participated in a fireside conversation.

Powell delivered a speech after PCE data was released last week, reaffirming that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and that the February core PCE “basically met expectations.” He said, “It's good to see that some data is in line with expectations,” he said, adding that the latest data is not as good as in the second half of last year, so more “positive” inflation data is still needed. The Federal Reserve will not “overreact” to these two months' data, and it will act carefully, so it is very important to have an accurate grasp.

Powell said that now the Federal Reserve is facing a two-pronged attack. On one side are economists and investors who are eager to cut interest rates for the first time, and on the other, those who are more cautious. Both sides are evenly matched. He said, “We will be careful with this decision because we are capable of doing it. We want to be more confident before taking steps to cut interest rates.”

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$Metros Development (MTRS.US)$It will be available today.

Also, due to the Ching Ming Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks and A shares were closed for one day, and southbound and northbound trading was closed.

Friday April 5th

Keywords: US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate; A-share market closure

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US non-farm payrolls and the US unemployment rate for March were heavily announced after the March seasonal adjustment; Hong Kong, China announced the HSBC manufacturing PMI for March.

Against the backdrop of February's non-agricultural data rising to 275,000, analysts expect the number of new jobs to increase by 198,000 in March, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 3.9% in March, and wage growth will fall slightly to 4.1%.

If the March non-farm payrolls data is stronger than expected, and there are no obvious revisions to the past data, then the market will be more cautious about the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the dollar may perform strongly. On the other hand, weak growth in non-farm payrolls may further depress the market when the Federal Reserve will start a cycle of interest rate cuts in June, and the dollar may be under pressure.

In terms of financial events, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin, Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Mester, St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mussalem, and Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins will speak in turn, and Federal Reserve Governor Kugler will also deliver speeches.

Also, the A-share market continued to be closed for one day, and southbound and northbound trading was closed.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

editor/tolk