Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The results were in line with the forecast, slightly lower than previous expectations. Net profit for 2024-2025 was reduced to 2.26 (-0.33) /3.03 billion yuan (-0.51) billion yuan, respectively. Net profit for 2026 is expected to be 363 million yuan, and the corresponding PE is 16x/12x/10x, respectively.
Performance summary: 2023 revenue of 1,209 million yuan/year over year, net profit to mother of -22.5%, net profit to mother of 14.9%, turning a year-on-year loss into profit; adjusted net profit of 280 million yuan, adjusted net interest rate of 23.2%; 2023H2 revenue of 499 million yuan/year over year, net profit to mother of 0.23 million yuan, net profit to mother of 4.6% (22.2% for 23H1). 100 million yuan/adjusted net profit margin of 20.7% (23H1 was 25.0%).
Develop the Hi-Beer partner model, with better models and lighter assets. ① Revenue structure: 2023 direct-run tavern revenue was 1.03 billion yuan/-29% year over year, franchise revenue was 105 million yuan/year over year +830%. ② Opening: Net closure of 288 stores in 2023, with a net increase of 24 stores as of March 19. As of the date of this announcement, a total of 383 Hi-Beer partner stores have been signed, of which 188 have been opened; covering a total of 136 cities from first-tier cities to county-level cities, of which 69 are stock markets and 67 are new markets. ③ Single store daily sales: In 2023, direct-run and franchised cooperative pubs sold 7.3k per day (7.0k in 2022); Hi Beer Partner sold 7.1k per day; the overall average daily average flat rate was 21 yuan/square meter; Hi Beer Partner's average daily flat rate was 34 yuan/square meter.
Profitability has improved, and costs and expenses are expected to be further optimized. 2023 gross profit margin 70.2% /+6.2pct, employee costs 24.7% /-39.7pct, depreciation of right-of-use assets 9.1% /-11.2pct, 23H2 increased compared to 23H1 cost and expense ratio. ① Gross profit margin: Currently, the company's share of partner stores is about 5%-6% of partner store turnover. In the future, we will further increase the supply chain bonus ratio by reducing costs. ② Cost rate: Reduce the labor cost rate by improving labor efficiency, increasing the proportion of hourly workers, etc., and reduce the rent rate by optimizing and adjusting the store structure.
Risk warning: The opening of stores fell short of expectations, there was a marked decline in same-store stores, and consumer demand was weak.