Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000738) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥5.3b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 10%, coming in at just CN¥0.55 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aecc Aero-Engine ControlLtd from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥5.99b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 19% to CN¥0.66. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥6.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.77 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a real cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
The consensus price target fell 12% to CN¥28.33, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Aecc Aero-Engine ControlLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥31.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥26.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 22% per year. So although Aecc Aero-Engine ControlLtd is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Aecc Aero-Engine ControlLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Aecc Aero-Engine ControlLtd you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.