The full-year results for Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. (HKG:6198) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥18b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥0.76 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Qingdao Port International from twin analysts is for revenues of CN¥18.7b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 2.9% to CN¥0.78. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥20.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.81 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$7.10, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Qingdao Port International's valuation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Qingdao Port International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Qingdao Port International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Qingdao Port International going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Qingdao Port International that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.