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设计总院(603357):低空经济领域优势显著 建成基于AI等协同工作平台

General Design Institute (603357): The low-altitude economy has significant advantages and has built a collaborative work platform based on AI, etc.

國泰君安 ·  Mar 29

Maintain the increase in holdings. Maintain the forecast for 2024-2025 EPS 1.02/1.13 yuan to increase 17/ 12%, and the forecast is that EPS will increase 11% to 1.26 yuan in 2026. Maintain the target price of 12.97 yuan, corresponding to 12.7 times PE in 2024.

The 10% increase in net profit due to mother in 2023 is basically in line with expectations, and general engineering contracting revenue is growing faster. (1) Revenue of 3.39 billion yuan increased by 21% in 2023 (Q1-Q4 increased 29/22/6/ 25%). By business, survey/design/general contracting/project management increased by 17/31/10% by business, by region, 2.882/550 million yuan within the province/outside the province increased 32/ -15%; net profit to mother increased by 488 million yuan by 10% (Q1-Q4 increased 11/17/8/ 5%).

(2) 2023 gross profit margin of 33.85% (+2.07pct), expense ratio 13.56% (+1.09pct), net profit margin 14.41% (-1.41pct), ROE 15.01% (+0.33pct), balance ratio 46.66% (+3.43pct).

Operating and investment cash flow changed from negative to positive in 2023, and accounts receivable and impairment increased. (1) Net operating cash flow in 2023 was 270 million yuan (previous year: 480 million yuan), Q1-Q4 was -2.7/-0.1/-0.6/62 million (-1.4/1.8/0.6/380 million yuan in the previous year). In 2023, the payout ratio was 80% (81% the previous year), and the payout ratio was 77% (56% the previous year). (2) The total cash flow from operation+investment was 280 million yuan (-40 million yuan in the previous year).

(3) Accounts receivable of 1.2 billion yuan (+12%), with a total impairment loss of 87 million yuan (compared with 56 million yuan in the previous year).

The field of low-altitude economy has geographical advantages and qualification advantages, and has built collaborative work platforms based on AI and other technologies.

(1) New contracts of 4.6 billion yuan increased by 14% in 2023; continued to deepen civil aviation consulting/survey and design, with orders of 34 million yuan; ongoing orders of 8.6 billion yuan, guarantee ratio of 2.53 billion yuan. (2) Build a collaborative work platform based on cloud computing, big data, AI and BIM. (3) In 2024, planned revenue increased by 10-40%, and net profit to mother increased by 10-30%. (4) Equity incentive assessment: The compound growth rate of net profit due to mother in 2024 (based in 2020) was ≥ 8.2%, after deducting non-ROE ≥ 13.74%. (5) Proposed dividend dividend rate of 3.53%, dividend payment ratio of 40.21%.

Risk warning: macroeconomic policies have been tightened beyond expectations, infrastructure investment has fallen short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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