China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601872) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with CN¥26b revenues missing by 11%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.60 falling short of forecasts by some -13%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from China Merchants Energy Shipping's eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥29.1b in 2024. This reflects a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 36% to CN¥0.81. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥31.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.85 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥8.80 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Merchants Energy Shipping at CN¥9.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥7.90. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.1% annually. So although China Merchants Energy Shipping is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Merchants Energy Shipping. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Merchants Energy Shipping going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that China Merchants Energy Shipping is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.