Investors were underwhelmed by the solid earnings posted by Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600785) recently. We did some digging and actually think they are being unnecessarily pessimistic.
A Closer Look At Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group)'s Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) recorded an accrual ratio of -0.19. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥572m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CN¥136.1m. Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group)'s Profit Performance
As we discussed above, Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group)'s accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group)'s statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! Better yet, its EPS are growing strongly, which is nice to see. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) you should know about.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group)'s profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.