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Topscore Fashion Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603608) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 30 07:15

Topscore Fashion Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603608) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 31%.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Topscore Fashion's P/S ratio of 1.9x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Luxury industry in China is also close to 1.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:603608 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 29th 2024

How Has Topscore Fashion Performed Recently?

For instance, Topscore Fashion's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Topscore Fashion will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Topscore Fashion's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 22%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 37% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 19% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Topscore Fashion's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Topscore Fashion's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Topscore Fashion's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our look at Topscore Fashion revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Topscore Fashion you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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