Whether US stocks can continue to rise in the second quarter, interest rate cuts and earnings reports are the key

来源：智通财经

在股市今年开局表现出色之后，投资者对第二季度可能出现的上涨保持警惕，他们正在评估美联储是否会兑现6月前降息的预期，并将注意力转向即将发布的财报的健康状况。

标普500指数第一季度涨幅超过10%，这是自2019年第一季度上涨近13.1%以来的最大一季度涨幅。尽管芯片制造商$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$和Facebook母公司$Meta Platforms (META.US)$等七大科技股贡献了本季度的大部分涨幅，但能源和工业等对经济敏感的板块在过去六周也出现了反弹。

市场已消化今年只有三次降息

这种涨势能否持续到6月份可能取决于美联储，美联储尚未发出信号表明通胀已经回落到足以证明降息是合理的。1月份开始时，市场预计在2024年期间会降息6到7次，但现在预计只会有3次降息，因为美国经济的弹性迹象增强了投资者对所谓软着陆的信心。

Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示:“市场和美联储最终在预期上达成一致，但这给每一份经济报告带来了更大的压力，因为不需要太多就能让所有人都采取同样的行动。”“如果我们在通胀方面看不到更多进展，我们预计会出现更多波动。”

根据CME的美联储观察工具，期货市场目前暗示，美联储在6月12日结束的政策会议上降息25个基点的可能性为61%，基准利率将降至5%至5.25%的区间。

Harbor Capital多资产策略团队的投资组合经理Jason Alonzo表示，随着投资者寻求更具吸引力的估值，美国经济的持续增长可能会延续近期市场反弹向周期性行业和小盘股的扩展。罗素2000小盘股指数第一季度上涨4.8%，而标准普尔500指数同期上涨近11%。

"目前市场唯一关心的是，即使经济重新加速，美联储是否仍能掌控局面，" Alonzo表示。“如果这种想法有点令人不安，美联储不得不暗示加息已经回到了谈判桌上，这将对投资者造成冲击，并对所有资产造成真正的问题。”

多项重磅数据来袭

下周公布的经济数据包括供应管理学会制造业数据、供应管理学会服务业数据，以及备受关注的非农就业报告。接受调查的分析师预计，3月非农就业人口将增加19.8万人。

CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall指出，如果随着美联储接近可能降息，市场涨势开始放缓，投资者不应感到意外。他表示，自1989年以来，标普500在上一次加息和首次降息之间的平均涨幅为15.5%，但在首次降息后的六个月内，平均涨幅仅为5.4%。

不过，Truist Advisory Services联席首席投资官 Keith Lerner 表示，从历史上看，第一季的强劲势头会延续到下个季度。他支出，在标普500第一季度总回报率达到或超过10%的11次中，市场在第二季度继续上涨的有9次，平均涨幅为6.2%。

"市场理应得到无罪推定，目前我们认为牛市规则适用，" Lerner称。他表示，持续升势面临的最大风险是，有迹象显示美联储正考虑在年底前将利率维持在当前水平，这将导致风险资产"大幅"重新定价。

一季度财报即将公布

John Hancock Investment Management联席首席投资策略师Emily Roland表示，市场放缓的可能性也将在很大程度上取决于企业财报。尽管市场重新定价了利率政策，但企业财报出人意料地强劲，并推动标准普尔500指数连续创下收盘新高。

根据 LSEG 的数据，标普500成分股公司在2023年最后一个季度的盈利增长率为10.1%，是预期增幅4.7%的两倍多。高利率可能会对消费者和企业支出造成压力，分析师预计第一季度收益将增长5.1%。各公司将在4月的第二周开始公布业绩。

Roland表示，“如果企业财报继续超出预期，美联储今年将很难证明降息是合理的。”“但如果我们看到通胀趋于平稳，这种经济重新加速可能会变得更可持续。”

编辑/tolk

Source: Zhitong Finance

After the stock market started well this year, investors are wary of a possible rise in the second quarter. They are evaluating whether the Federal Reserve will deliver on expectations to cut interest rates by June, and turning their attention to the health of upcoming earnings reports.

The S&P 500 index rose more than 10% in the first quarter, the biggest increase in the first quarter since rising nearly 13.1% in the first quarter of 2019. Although chipmakers$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$and Facebook's parent company$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Seven major technology stocks contributed to most of this quarter's gains, but economy-sensitive sectors such as energy and industry have also rebounded in the past six weeks.

The market has absorbed interest rate cuts only three times this year

Whether this rise can continue until June may depend on the Federal Reserve, which has yet to signal that inflation has fallen back enough to prove that interest rate cuts are reasonable. At the beginning of January, the market expected to cut interest rates 6 to 7 times during 2024, but now it is expected to cut interest rates only 3 times, as signs of elasticity in the US economy have strengthened investors' confidence in the so-called soft landing.

Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, said: “The market and the Federal Reserve finally agreed on expectations, but this put more pressure on every economic report because it doesn't take too many to make everyone take the same action.” “If we don't see more progress on inflation, we expect more volatility.”

According to CME's Federal Reserve observation tool, the futures market currently suggests that the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the policy meeting ending on June 12 is 61%, and the benchmark interest rate will fall to the range of 5% to 5.25%.

Jason Alonzo, portfolio manager of Harbor Capital's multi-asset strategy team, said that as investors seek more attractive valuations, the continued growth of the US economy is likely to continue the recent market rebound and expansion into cyclical industries and small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 4.8% in the first quarter, while the S&P 500 index rose nearly 11% during the same period.

“Currently, the only concern of the market is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to control the situation even if the economy accelerates again,” Alonzo said. “If this thought is a little unsettling, the Federal Reserve has to suggest that interest rate hikes have returned to the negotiation table, which will shock investors and cause real problems for all assets.”

A number of major data hits

Economic data to be released next week include the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data, the Institute for Supply Management service data, and the much-publicized non-farm payrolls report. Analysts surveyed expect the number of non-farm workers to increase by 198,000 in March.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, pointed out that investors should not be surprised if market gains begin to slow as the Federal Reserve approaches the possibility of cutting interest rates. He said that since 1989, the average increase of the S&P 500 between the last rate hike and the first rate cut was 15.5%, but in the six months after the first rate cut, the average increase was only 5.4%.

However, Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services, said that historically, the strong momentum of the first quarter will continue into the next quarter. According to his expenses, out of 11 times the total return of the S&P 500 reached or exceeded 10% in the first quarter, the market continued to rise 9 times in the second quarter, with an average increase of 6.2%.

“The market should have been presumed innocent. Currently, we believe the bull market rules apply,” Lerner said. He said that the biggest risk facing the continued upward trend is that there are signs that the Federal Reserve is considering maintaining interest rates at the current level until the end of the year, which will lead to a “drastic” repricing of risky assets.

The first quarter earnings report will be released soon

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said that the possibility of a market slowdown will also largely depend on corporate financial reports. Despite the market's repricing of interest rate policies, corporate earnings were unexpectedly strong and drove the S&P 500 index to continuously close to new highs.

According to LSEG data, the profit growth rate of S&P 500 companies in the last quarter of 2023 was 10.1%, more than double the 4.7% expected increase. High interest rates are likely to put pressure on consumer and business spending, and analysts expect earnings to rise 5.1% in the first quarter. The companies will start announcing results in the second week of April.

Roland said, “If corporate earnings continue to exceed expectations, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify cutting interest rates this year.” “But if we see inflation stabilizing, this re-acceleration of the economy is likely to become more sustainable.”

editor/tolk

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二季度美股能否延续涨势，降息和财报是关键