GUSHENGTANG(02273.HK):SOLID GROWTH OF OFFLINE BUSINESSES WITH CONTINUOUS BUSINESS EXPANSIONS
GUSHENGTANG(02273.HK):SOLID GROWTH OF OFFLINE BUSINESSES WITH CONTINUOUS BUSINESS EXPANSIONS
Gushengtang announced 2023 revenue of Rmb2.32bn (+43% YoY), and net profit of Rmb252m (+39% YoY). Excluding one-off items, its adjusted net profit reached Rmb304m (+53% YoY), in line with our expectation and its profit alert (49%-54% YoY growth of adjusted net profit in 2023). Given the strong growth momentum, we raise our adjusted EPS from Rmb1.50 to Rmb1.66 in 24E (+30% YoY), Rmb1.96 to Rmb2.22 in 25E (+34% YoY) and forecast Rmb2.90 in 26E (+31% YoY). Based on the DCF model, we lower our target price from HK$70.6 to HK$62.8 (35x 24E PE). With 44% upside, we maintain our BUY rating.
固生堂宣佈2023年收入爲人民幣23.2億元（同比增長43％），淨利潤爲2.52億元人民幣（同比增長39％）。不包括一次性項目，其調整後的淨利潤達到人民幣3.04億元（同比增長53％），符合我們的預期和盈利預告（2023年調整後淨利潤同比增長49％-54％）。鑑於強勁的增長勢頭，我們將調整後的每股收益從24E的1.50元人民幣上調至1.66元人民幣（同比增長30％），將25E的調整後每股收益從1.96元上調至2.22元人民幣（同比增長34％），並預測26E的2.90元人民幣（同比增長31％）。根據差價合約模型，我們將目標價從70.6港元下調至62.8港元（35倍24年市盈率）。上漲幅度爲44％，我們維持買入評級。
Rapid growth of offline businesses. In terms of revenue by channel, revenue from the offline business grew 49% YoY to Rmb2.04bn and the revenue from online business reached Rmb286m (+10% YoY) in 2023, representing of 88% YoY and 12% YoY of its total revenue, respectively. As for the revenue by business segment, revenue from the provision of healthcare solutions and sales of healthcare products reached Rmb2.29bn (+43% YoY) and Rmb36m (+26% YoY), accounting for 98% and 2% of its total revenue in 2023.
線下業務的快速增長。按渠道劃分的收入方面，線下業務收入同比增長49％，達到20.4億元人民幣，2023年線上業務收入達到2.86億元人民幣（同比增長10％），分別佔其總收入的88％和12％。至於按業務部門劃分的收入，提供醫療保健解決方案和銷售醫療保健產品的收入達到人民幣22.9億元（同比增長43％）和人民幣3,600萬元（同比增長26％），佔其2023年總收入的98％和2％。
Stable ASP and declining selling expense ratios. The number of customer visits and new customers reached 4.3m (+46% YoY) and 803,973 (+46% YoY) in 2023. Besides, the customer return rate increased from 64% in 2022 to 65% in 2023. The company's average spending per customer visit slightly declined 2% YoY to Rmb541 in 2023 (vs Rmb552 in 2022). In addition, the average spending per year increased 5% YoY to Rmb1,937 in 2023 (vs Rmb1,845 in 2022). Its blended gross margin declined 0.62ppts YoY to 30.1% in 2023, with gross profit margin of provision of healthcare solutions remained relatively stable at c.30.1%. Its selling expense-to- revenue ratio declined 0.65ppts YoY to 12.1% in 2023.
ASP 穩定，銷售費用比率下降。2023年，客戶訪問量和新客戶數量達到430萬次（同比增長46％）和803,973次（同比增長46％）。此外，客戶退貨率從2022年的64％增加到2023年的65％。2023年，該公司每次客戶訪問的平均支出同比略有下降2％，至541元人民幣（而2022年爲552元人民幣）。此外，2023年每年的平均支出同比增長5％，達到1,937元人民幣（而2022年爲1,845元人民幣）。2023年，其混合毛利率同比下降0.62個百分點至30.1％，提供醫療保健解決方案的毛利率保持相對穩定，約爲30.1％。2023年，其銷售費用與收入的比率同比下降0.65個百分點至12.1％。
Expecting further business network expansion. As of end-2023, the company has operated 56 medical institutions. In 2023, the company acquired seven medical institutions (Kunshan Mingtai, Wuxi Litongfeng, Baozhongtang Laoshan, Baozhongtang Eshan, etc), and two self- constructions (Foshan Chancheng and Fuzhou Luyi), entering two new cities (Wuhan and Kunshan). In addition, the company recently announced 100% equity interest of Baozhongtang Singapore, entering the overseas market. The company expects to increase 10-15 new stores to its business network by M&As and self-constructions in 2024E, entering 3-5 new cities to further expand its business network. In addition, the company has obtained the registration approval for seven TCM in-hospital preparations, we expect the TCM in-hospital preparations contribute sales in future.
預計業務網絡將進一步擴展。截至2023年底，該公司已運營56家醫療機構。2023年，公司收購了七家醫療機構（崑山銘泰、無錫利通豐、保中堂嶗山、保中堂峨山等）和兩家自建機構（佛山禪城和福州陸易），進入兩個新城市（武漢和崑山）。此外，該公司最近宣佈持有新加坡寶中堂100％的股權，進入海外市場。該公司預計，在2024E年，將通過併購和自建爲其業務網絡增加10-15家新門店，進入3-5個新城市以進一步擴大其業務網絡。此外，該公司已獲得七種中藥院內製劑的註冊批准，我們預計這些中藥院內製劑將有助於未來的銷售。
Maintain BUY. Given the strong growth momentum, we raise our adjusted EPS from Rmb1.50 to Rmb1.66 in 24E (+30% YoY), Rmb1.96 to Rmb2.22 in 25E (+34% YoY) and forecast Rmb2.90 in 26E (+31% YoY). Based on the DCF model, we lower our target price from HK$70.6 to HK$62.8 (35x 24E PE). With 44% upside, we maintain our BUY rating.
維持買入。鑑於強勁的增長勢頭，我們將調整後的每股收益從24E的1.50元人民幣上調至1.66元人民幣（同比增長30％），將25E的調整後每股收益從1.96元上調至2.22元人民幣（同比增長34％），並預測26E的2.90元人民幣（同比增長31％）。根據差價合約模型，我們將目標價從70.6港元下調至62.8港元（35倍24年市盈率）。上漲幅度爲44％，我們維持買入評級。
Risks. Lower-than expected progress of M&As and self-established medical institutions, loss of physicians, rising competition from other TCM healthcare providers.
風險。併購和自建醫療機構的進展低於預期，醫生流失，來自其他中醫醫療保健提供商的競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。