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春立医疗(688236):业绩短期承压 后集采时代有望迎来恢复性增长

Chunli Medical (688236): After short-term pressure on performance, the collection era is expected to usher in restorative growth

西南證券 ·  Mar 28, 2024 00:00

Incident: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved operating income of 1.21 billion yuan (+0.6%), net profit to mother of 280 million yuan (-9.7%), and net profit not attributable to mother of 250 million yuan (-8.3%).

Due to the impact of collection, performance is under pressure in the short term. On a quarterly basis, the company's revenue for the 2023Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 quarter was 2.5/2.5/420 million yuan (-4.2%/-6.3%/+33.4%/-5.7%), and realized net profit to mother was 0.6/0.7/0.6/100 million yuan (-24.5%/-15.4%/+3.5%/-0.8%), respectively. The short-term pressure on performance is mainly due to the impact of procurement and the decline in factory prices. In terms of profitability, the company's gross margin in 2023 was 72.5% (-3.55pp), sales expenses ratio was 31.7% (-0.88pp), and financial expenses ratio was -1.37% (+0.3pp), which remained stable. Net margin was 23% (-2.6pp).

The knee joint is expected to enter the joint procurement contract renewal list, and the market share is expected to increase. Currently, hip products still account for a relatively high share of the company's joint revenue. In 2022, the share of revenue is about 70%, and the knee revenue share is about 13%. Since Chunli Medical's bid was too high for the first joint collection, the company chose to act as an agent for Beistar's knee products, reducing the risk of not winning the bid. It is expected that the most effective bid rules will be added to this joint bid renewal. It is expected that the company's knee products will likely win the bid, so sales of knee products are expected to resume rapid growth.

The orthopedic product line is fully covered, and new fields are actively being expanded. Chunli Medical's current joint business covers the four major joints of the hip, knee, shoulder, and elbow. Is the company the first in mainland China to obtain BIOLOX? Delta's fourth-generation ceramic joint prosthesis product medical device registration certificate company covers semi-ceramic and all-ceramic joint prosthesis products, and is one of the earliest domestic companies to produce advanced joint prosthesis products. Furthermore, the company is the first in China to own BIOLOX? OPTION is a company with a ceramic head product registration certificate with a conical sleeve. It is also the first domestic company to have both a single condyle with an active platform and a single condyle with a fixed platform, the first domestic company to have a patellofemoral joint, and the only domestic company with inverted shoulder products. In addition, the company laid out in the field of joint robotics and developed the “Changjiang INS” intelligent robot system, a full-knee replacement navigation robot device. In addition, the company also has a product layout in the fields of spine, PRP, dentistry, etc., and the product line continues to expand.

Profit forecast and rating: The company's EPS is expected to be 0.93, 1.17, and 1.43 yuan respectively from 2024 to 2026, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Recovery of surgical volume falls short of expectations, collection policy falls short of expectations, product release falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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