运价持续历史高位，归母净利逆势增长显α 用2023 年的BCTI-TC7 的TCE 水平作为公司2023 年度业绩的参考基准，该时段BCTI-TC7 TCE均值为25,842 美元/天，同比下降24.22%。然而，公司2023 年度归母净利润同比升幅8.55%，优于市场平均水平，显示出公司较强的经营能力。运价的下滑并非周期性下行，因为当前的运价水平仍处于历史上的较高水准，据克拉克森数据，2011 年至2024 年3 月26 日的TC7 TCE均值仅为17,011 美元/天。Incidents:
On March 26, 2024, CMB released its 2023 annual report: the company completed a total of 46.8 million tons of freight throughout the year, up 4.58% year on year; freight turnover of 91 billion tons and kilometers, +1.34% year over year; achieved operating income of 6.197 billion yuan, -1.08% year on year, net profit to mother of 1,557 billion yuan, +8.55% year on year, and net profit to mother of record high.
Investment highlights:
Freight prices continued to be historically high, and net profit growth against the trend showed that α used the TCE level of BCTI-TC7 in 2023 as the reference benchmark for the company's 2023 performance. The average BCTI-TC7 TCE value during this period was 25,842 US dollars/day, down 24.22% year on year. However, the company's net profit to mother increased by 8.55% year-on-year in 2023, which is better than the market average, showing the company's strong ability to operate. The decline in freight rates is not a cyclical decline, as the current freight rate level is still at a historically high level. According to Clarkson data, the TC7 TCE average value from 2011 to March 26, 2024 was only $17,011/day.
Fleet ageing+environmental pressure, and tight supply support continued market sentiment. According to Clarkson data, as of February 2024, the share of on-hand orders for MR ships (calculated in DWT) was 10%.
In addition, MR ships are under relatively severe environmental pressure. The proportion of old ships over the age of 20 and those aged 15-19 (calculated by Dwt) was 10% and 27%, respectively, far higher than the number of new ships on hand orders, and 18% of the capacity was rated D-E in 2023. Considering that carbon reduction policies such as CII in 2024 will gradually put pressure on the operation of old ships, there will still be pressure on the supply side of the MR market in the next few years. Looking at the demand side, the trade volume of refined oil products in the Asia-Pacific region continues to improve, and is expected to grow by 3%/2% in 2024/2025. Therefore, it is expected that the boom in the transportation of refined oil products will remain at a high level in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating CMB is a leading transportation leader for refined oil products in Asia, focusing on domestic and foreign trade transportation of refined oil products, chemicals, and gas. Based on the latest supply and demand relationship in the industry, we adjusted our profit forecast. We expect CMB's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 69.85, 71.83 and 7.249 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 20.45, 21.05, and 2,133 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE about 8, 7, and 7 times. Considering that the industry is still clearly improving, the “gain” rating is maintained.
Risks suggest that trade demand for refined oil products falls short of expectations; the elimination of old ships falls short of expectations; orders for refined oil tankers have increased beyond expectations; the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; and geopolitical risks.
