Net profit to mother in 2023 was +80.7% YoY; Q4 net profit was +18.6% YoY. The company released the 2023 Annual Report, achieving revenue of 602.32 billion yuan, +42.0% YoY; net profit to mother was 30.04 billion yuan, +80.7% YoY. The performance was in the median forecast. Single Q4 achieved revenue of 180.4 billion yuan, +15.1% year over year; net profit to mother was 8.67 billion yuan, +18.6% year over year. Considering that the current wave of price reductions continues in the car market, we lowered our 2024-2025 performance forecast and added the 2026 performance forecast. The net profit for 2024-2026 is 324.9 (-124.5) /390.5 (-145.7) /46.5 billion yuan, corresponding EPS is 11.2 (-4.2) /13.4 (-6.0) /15.8 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 18.7/15.5/13.2 times, but given the company's stable NEV base and rapid overseas sales growth, High-end brands are gradually increasing their investment in the field of intelligence to maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Sales of new energy vehicles in Q4 reached a record high, and bicycle profits declined in the context of price reduction promotions. The company's total sales volume of 2023Q4 new energy passenger vehicles reached 943,000 units, a record high, +38.2% year-on-year and +14.7% month-on-month, mainly driven by the annual total sales target of the price reduction promotion sprint. Among them, the overseas business continued to perform well, with overseas passenger car sales reaching 97,000 units in Q4, +193.2% year over year, and +36.5% month over month; the share of passenger car sales increased to 10.3%, +5.5 pct year over year, and +1.7 pct month over month. However, with the introduction of strong discounts, Q4 bicycle net profit (excluding BYD Electronics) was under pressure, -25.7% month-on-month to 80,000 yuan.
The three wings of intelligence, high-end, and overseas travel go hand in hand. With 100 billion dollars, the smart vehicle can be expected in the future, the company is the world's top NEV sales champion in 2023. On the basis of consolidating the advantages of the main brand, we actively lay out high-end brands to look up/Tense/ Equation Bao. Among them, Tensei D9 won the domestic MPV sales championship in 2023, helping the company improve its brand and enhance its profitability. At the same time, the company achieved “direct product export+localized factory construction” two-wheel drive in overseas business, making a big splash in Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand and other markets with leading electrification technology, and actively developing into developed markets such as Europe. At present, the company's first transport ship has completed its maiden voyage, while actively promoting the construction of overseas production capacity in Thailand, Brazil, Hungary, etc. In addition, the company actively invested in the technical layout in the field of intelligence and released the “Xuanji” vehicle intelligent architecture. Tension N7/U8 2024Q1/Q3 are expected to implement urban NOA functions respectively. Looking forward to the future, BYD will invest 100 billion yuan in the field of intelligence to achieve optional and standard advanced smart driving functions for more than 200,000 or 300,000 models, and the product power is expected to usher in a leap forward.
Risk warning: NEV sales fall short of expectations, sharp rise in raw material prices, etc.