The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600963) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 29%. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 15%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 21% in the last three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 19% in the last 90 days.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Yueyang Forest & Paper isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Even though the Yueyang Forest & Paper share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
Yueyang Forest & Paper's revenue is actually up 36% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Yueyang Forest & Paper has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Yueyang Forest & Paper stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 15% in the twelve months, Yueyang Forest & Paper shareholders did even worse, losing 28% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Yueyang Forest & Paper has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.