Source: Finance Association
① Ives lowered Tesla's target share price from 315 to 300; ② He said that Q1 was a “nightmare” for Tesla; ③ By the close of the US stock market on Thursday, Tesla's stock price had fallen 2.25% to $175.79.
Recently, due to sluggish demand in the electric vehicle market, Wall Street banks have continuously revised Tesla's delivery expectations for the first quarter of this year. Previously, Damo lowered its Q1 forecast value from 469,400 vehicles to 425,000 vehicles. Today, even Tesla's “die-hard fans” can't handle it; they think Q1 will be disappointing.
As we all know, Dan Ives, a well-known strategist at the US investment bank Wedbush, has been watching Tesla for a long time. In his latest report, he lowered Tesla's target share price from 315 to 300, while saying that Q1 is a “nightmare” for Tesla. However, the analyst said that although “a dark cloud of demand is forming in the near future,” he is still optimistic about Tesla for a long time.
By the close of the US stock market on Thursday, Tesla's stock price fell 2.25% to $175.79.
He wrote that when Tesla announces global deliveries next week, it won't be “a time for the bulls to celebrate, but a 'quarter where Tesla investors can stick to the bands'.” Not surprisingly, the electric car maker will release its first-quarter delivery figures early next week.
Ives added that Tesla is dealing with issues related to the Model 3 Highland upgrade in the US, while sales in Europe are also slowing down. However, according to him, “Tesla's biggest and biggest concern” is the intensification of competition in the Chinese market, and the “price war” associated with it continues. This makes this key market very challenging for Tesla, especially this quarter.
He wrote, “We believe the situation Tesla is facing is as negative as we have seen in the past few years, and Musk/Tesla has been attacked from all sides. But unlike in the past, competition in the Chinese market has become a nightmare as growth slows and profit margins are compressed, and now there is a reason to do this (lower the target price).”
“For Musk, this is a fork in the road for Tesla to get through this turbulent period, otherwise the future could be even darker.” he added.
Watch out for big waves to come
Meanwhile, Adam Jonas, another analyst at Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley), who is optimistic about Tesla, lowered his first-quarter delivery forecast from 469,000 vehicles to 425,000 vehicles on Wednesday, while the full-year figure was lowered from 1.98,000 units to 1.954 million units.
At the beginning of March, Jonas said in an investor report that he cut Tesla's profit forecast for 2024 by 25%, saying that the electric vehicle giant “may” lose money this year. He also lowered Tesla's target share price from $345 to $320, and lowered Tesla's 2024 earnings per share forecast to $1.51, compared to his previous forecast of $2.04 per share.
On Wednesday, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli lowered Tesla's target share price from $224 to $196 and maintained a neutral rating for the stock. The analyst also lowered its first-quarter delivery forecast from 473,300 vehicles to 429,000 vehicles.
Michaeli wrote that Tesla's first-quarter results “seem difficult to meet aggressive general expectations.” Wall Street's predictions for 2024 and 2025 are too high, he added.
Meanwhile, Bernstein (Bernstein) analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who tends to be more bearish on Tesla, lowered Tesla's price target from $150 to $120 on Tuesday. Compared to the current share price, this means Tesla's stock price will drop 33%.
Sacconaghi's rating of Tesla stock is still “reduced.” He pointed out that Tesla experienced “weak” demand in China and Europe in the first quarter, while production of the US Model 3 was also “limited.” Sacconaghi also lowered its sales forecast for the first quarter from 490,000 units to 426,000 units..
However, George Gianarikas, an analyst at the financial services company Canaccord Genuity, was still quite optimistic on Tuesday. He reiterated that Tesla's target stock price is 234, and the rating is buy. But he also lowered the delivery forecast for the first quarter from 441,000 vehicles to 420,000 vehicles.
“We believe that much of the negative sentiment currently surrounding Tesla is extreme.” he said.
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