Brief performance review
On March 27, 2024, the company disclosed its 2023 results, achieving revenue of 82.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%; net profit to mother of 448 million yuan, an increase of 41.7% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 0.5% to mother. Operating cash flow of 470 million yuan has been flowing in for five consecutive years.
Management analysis
The network coverage density of member stores has increased, and cooperation with leading brands has deepened. As of 2023, the total number of retail stores with registered members of the company exceeded 237,000, an increase of 15.0% over the previous year, and the number of active member stores exceeded 90,000, an increase of 19.1% over the previous year. Deepen cooperation with leading brands, and launch 456 joint promotions with 35 core leading brand factories throughout the year to help member stores improve their operating efficiency. The share of procurement in the headquarters supply chain continued to rise, from 28% in 2020 to 51% in 2023.
The consumer electronics category is growing at a high rate. The revenue of the trading business segment in 2023 was 81.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%, accounting for 99.0% of revenue. The Group mainly covers the six major sectors of consumer electronics, agricultural production materials, household appliances, transportation, home building materials, alcohol and beverages, accounting for 55%, 15%, 9%, 4% and 2% of the revenue from its own business, respectively.
Among them, consumer electronics products showed the best growth rate, with a 19% year-on-year increase in 2023, thanks to cooperation with Apple in the sinking market.
SaaS+ users accelerate penetration. The total number of SaaS+ subscribers in the 23 year service business revenue was close to 132,000, up 15.6% year on year. Among them, there were more than 48,000 retail stores for paid members, an increase of 61.4% year on year. In 2023, the service business segment generated revenue of 650 million yuan, -17.6% year-on-year, accounting for 1% of revenue. Mainly due to the decline in revenue from merchant solutions, some low-margin precision marketing and software customization services have been reduced.
Costs are stable, and the quality of operations has improved. The company's gross margin in 2023 was 3.3%, +0.1pct. Among them, the gross margin of all sectors increased. The gross profit margin of the trading business was 2.5%, +0.1 pct year on year, and the gross profit margin of the service business was 87.7%, +13 pct year on year. The sales expense ratio was 1.7%, the management expense ratio was 0.5%, and the R&D expense ratio was 0.1%, all the same as in the same period last year.
The number of inventory turnover days dropped from 13 days in 2022 to 12 days in 2023.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We forecast the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 576 million yuan, 740 million yuan, and 889 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE for 2024-2026 was 29.92x, 23.30x, and 19.61x, respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Macro consumption recovery falls short of expectations and the risk of changes in market demand, low gross margin or operating risks, supply chain risks, etc.