As you might know, Novoray Corporation (SHSE:688300) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Novoray missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥712m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.94, falling short by 3.3% and 8.5% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Novoray's four analysts is for revenues of CN¥903.0m in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 27% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 35% to CN¥1.26. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥930.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.36 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥55.00, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Novoray's valuation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Novoray's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 27% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 21% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Novoray is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Novoray. They also downgraded Novoray's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Novoray analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Novoray has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.