下半年同店承压，经营杠杆导致利润率环比下滑。2023 年奈雪的茶单店模型：人力20.3%/-3.2pct，租金14.5%/-1.0pct，外卖费用8.2%/-1.2pct，原材料、水电费用、其它折旧摊销39.3%/-0.4pct，门店经营利润率17.7%/+5.8%（2023H1 门店经营利润率20.1%）。同时公司也将进一步优化总部成本，预计2024 年总部成本绝对金额较2023 年将持平或有所下降。Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Performance fell short of expectations. Net profit for 2024-2025 was reduced to 1.62 (-5.64) /2.45 (-7.42) billion yuan (-7.42) billion yuan (same below), respectively. Net profit for 2026 is expected to be 327 million yuan, and corresponding PE is 26x/17x/13x, respectively.
Performance summary: The company's revenue in 2023 was 5.164 billion yuan/+20.3% year over year, adjusted net profit of 209 million yuan (loss of 461 million yuan for the same period), and net profit to mother of 13 million yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit. In 2023, Nai Xue's direct tea store recorded a store operating profit of RMB 829 million, an increase of about 76.3% over 2022. The operating profit margin of Nai Xue's store was 17.7%/+5.9pct year on year.
Net cash from operating activities increased by approximately 170.2% to $829 million.
The same stores were under pressure in the second half of the year, and operating leverage led to a month-on-month decline in profit margins. 2023 Nai Xue's tea shop model: manpower 20.3% /-3.2pct, rent 14.5% /-1.0pct, takeout expenses 8.2% /-1.2pct, raw materials, utility expenses, and other depreciation and amortization 39.3% /-0.4pct, store operating profit margin 17.7%/+5.8% (2023H1 store operating profit margin 20.1%). At the same time, the company will also further optimize headquarters costs. It is expected that the absolute amount of headquarters costs in 2024 will remain the same or decrease compared to 2023.
Strengthen franchise and overseas business, and the model is lighter after the adjustment of the franchise policy. ① Direct management: There was a net increase of 506 direct-run stores in 2023, with a total of 1,574 direct-run stores at the end of the year. In 2024, the plan is to open another 200 new direct-run stores at premium locations in high-tier cities, while closing some stores with average performance. It is expected that there will be no net increase in direct-managed stores in 2024. ② Franchise: 81 franchise stores were opened in 2023. As of March 2024, about 200 franchise stores have been opened. By the end of the year, hundreds of franchise stores are expected to open. The company plans to open 2000-3000 franchise stores within 2-3 years. The franchise policy was adjusted, and the model was lighter: the investment in a single store was reduced from close to 1 million yuan to 580,000 yuan, and the area requirement was also reduced from 90 square meters to 40 square meters, greatly reducing the financial pressure on franchisees. ③ Overseas: Nai Xue will open stores in Hong Kong, China, Macau, Southeast Asia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In the early stages, it will focus on direct management, and will not rule out liberalization to join in the future.
It is expected that new low double digit stores will be opened overseas in 2024.
Risk warning: The opening of stores fell short of expectations, there was a marked decline in same-store stores, and consumer demand was weak.
