Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2023 annual report, which was returned to the forecasting center of the Mother Net Profit Department, in line with expectations. Affected by the weakening of downstream production, high-purity sand Q4 is under phased pressure; the semiconductor and photovoltaic quartz tube and rod business is growing rapidly, creating a new growth pole.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved annual revenue of 7.184 billion yuan, an increase of 258%, and net profit to mother of 5,039 billion yuan, an increase of 379%. It was at the center of the forecast, in line with expectations. The company's annual report dividend plan pays 57 yuan for 10 to 5 shares. The cash dividend for fiscal year 23 exceeds 2.5 billion yuan, and the dividend ratio exceeds 50%. We attach great importance to shareholder returns. Considering the pressure to reduce the price of high-purity sand storage in 24, we lowered the 2024-25 EPS forecast to 15.44, 16.10 yuan (-11.63, -19.60), and added the 2026 EPS forecast of 16.67 yuan. Refer to the comparable company's average PE value of 13.5X in 24 and give a certain discount, maintain the target price of 165 yuan, and maintain the “increase” rating.
High-purity sand shipments are under phased pressure, and prices are strong. The company produces 410,000 tons of high-purity quartz sand throughout the year, sells 34,000 tons, and exports 30,000 tons, with an estimated average price of 197,000 yuan/ton. We think it may be mainly due to the weakening of downstream component production since 23H2, the price of superimposed high-purity sand continues to be high, mainly downstream consumption inventory, and weak procurement intentions, which affects Q4 shipments and profits. Production schedules in the 24Q1 photovoltaic industry chain have improved marginally, which is expected to drive demand for upstream consumables.
Semiconductor performance is booming, and a new growth pole is being prepared. The company's quartz tube and rod revenue was 1.23 billion yuan, an increase of 60%. It is estimated that the average price of products exceeded 120,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 30%, or mainly benefited from increased shipments of semiconductors, etc. Among them, semiconductor product revenue was about 470 million yuan, an increase of 63%. It is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 24 years, and the market influence will gradually expand. In addition, the company's photovoltaic quartz products have also experienced rapid growth and have become the designated raw material supplier for mainstream battery equipment manufacturers, with annual revenue of about 410 million yuan, an increase of 465%.
Internal sand barriers are still being built, and new production capacity is increasing growth. The oversupply of high-purity sand in '24 is contradictory or prominent, and there is pressure to reduce prices. However, we believe that internal sand resources and technical barriers are high, and the increase is expected to be limited, making it difficult to change the centralized pattern in the short term. As one of the few manufacturers with the ability to supply inner layer sand, the company increased growth as production capacity was released.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, rising raw material costs, and production capacity release falling short of expectations.