NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):LARGE INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS WITH GENEROUS DIVIDEND PAYOUT
NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):LARGE INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS WITH GENEROUS DIVIDEND PAYOUT
Although equity market volatility was quite high in 4Q23, we noted that Noah reported large increase in net profit 4Q23, mainly due to relatively low comparison base in 4Q22 and rapid expansion in overseas business. As a result, its adjusted net profit increased 56.7% YoY in 4Q23 and 1% YoY in 2023, against 8.7% YoY decrease in 9M23. Despite high volatility in domestic equity markets, Noah's AUM was relatively stable in 4Q23, mainly thanks to rapid expansion in overseas business, further reflecting its strong competitiveness in the wealth management industry. In our view, its overseas net revenue and AUM may continue to report decent growth in 2024.
尽管23年第四季度股市波动性相当高，但我们注意到，诺亚报告称，23年第四季度净利润大幅增长，这主要是由于2022年第四季度的比较基础相对较低以及海外业务的快速扩张。因此，其调整后的净利润在23年第四季度同比增长56.7％，在2023年同比增长1％，而在9M23年同比下降8.7％。尽管国内股票市场波动很大，但诺亚的资产管理规模在23年第四季度相对稳定，这主要是由于海外业务的快速扩张，这进一步反映了其在财富管理行业的强大竞争力。我们认为，其海外净收入和资产管理规模可能会在2024年继续保持可观的增长。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
Overseas business increased rapidly in 2023. Its number of overseas active clients may increase 44.6% YoY in 4Q23 and 38% YoY in 2023. Its overseas net revenue may surge 73% YoY and account for about 43.5% of its total net revenue in 2023, up from 26.7% in 2022.
海外业务在 2023 年迅速增长。其海外活跃客户数量可能在23年第四季度同比增长44.6％，在2023年同比增长38％。其海外净收入可能同比增长73％，约占2023年总净收入的43.5％，高于2022年的26.7％。
Overseas AUM may expand decently in 2023. We expect its overseas AUM to increase 7.6% YoY in 4Q23 and account for about 23.3% of total AUM as of end December 2023, up from 20.8% as of end December 2022. Its AUM reached RMB154.6bn at end December 2023, against RMB157.1bn as of end December 2022.
海外资产管理规模可能会在2023年大幅扩大。我们预计，其海外资产管理规模将在23年第四季度同比增长7.6％，占截至2023年12月底的总资产管理规模的约23.3％，高于2022年12月底的20.8％。截至2023年12月底，其资产管理规模达到1546亿元人民币，而截至2022年12月底为1571亿元人民币。
Dividend payout ratio will increase. Noah announced a 50% dividend payout ratio and a 50% special dividend payout ratio, which will result in about 20% dividend yield for full year 2023 and should bode well for its shareholders' interests. In our view, Noah will maintain its competitiveness in China's wealth and asset management market in the next few years.
股息支付率将增加。诺亚宣布了50％的股息支付率和50％的特别股息支付率，这将使2023年全年股息收益率达到约20％，对于其股东的利益来说应该是个好兆头。我们认为，诺亚将在未来几年内保持其在中国财富和资产管理市场的竞争力。
Key Risks for Rating
评级的主要风险
Noah might be negatively affected by rising volatility in the equity markets; risk events in investments such as Camsing incident may negatively affect Noah's value and brand image.
诺亚可能会受到股票市场波动加剧的负面影响；投资中的风险事件，例如Camsing事件，可能会对诺亚的价值和品牌形象产生负面影响。
Valuation
估价
We noted Chinese equity markets sentiments has improved in recent months. Meanwhile, its overseas business may continue to report decent growth in the near future. Meanwhile, Noah announced generous dividend payout for full year 2023, thanks to its healthy balance sheet. Noah is now trading at 4.4x 2024E adjusted P/E, which is undervalued. We revised up our target price from US$22.5 to US$23.91, based on 10.1x 2024E adjusted P/E, at about 20% discount to its average forward P/E over the past ten years. Maintain BUY rating.
我们注意到，近几个月来，中国股市情绪有所改善。同时，其海外业务在不久的将来可能会继续实现可观的增长。同时，诺亚宣布2023年全年派发丰厚的股息，这要归功于其健康的资产负债表。诺亚现在的交易价格为2024年的4.4倍调整后的市盈率，该市盈率被低估了。根据2024年的10.1倍调整后的市盈率，我们将目标价格从22.5美元上调至23.91美元，比过去十年的平均远期市盈率折扣约20％。维持买入评级。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。