GREENTOWN SERVICE GROUP(2869.HK):HIGH DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO SUPPORTED BY STRONG CASH FLOW
GREENTOWN SERVICE GROUP(2869.HK):HIGH DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO SUPPORTED BY STRONG CASH FLOW
Greentown Service's (GS) 2023 revenue grew 17.1% YoY to RMB17.4bn, in line with our estimation. In particular, community living services revenue grew faster at 25% YoY, thanks to a new equity cooperation, excluding which the segment's revenue grew 15.6% YoY. Gross margin expanded 0.6ppt to 16.8%, 0.3ppt higher than our estimation, as gross margin of all segments expanded except for technology service. SG&A as % of revenue also decreased by 0.3ppt, 0.7ppt below our estimation. As a result, we calculated that core net profit grew by 32% YoY to RMB721m. Due to provision of a business investment in a retail company in Beijing, reported net profit only grew by 10.6% YoY to RMB605bn, 7.0% and 13.8% below BOCI and market estimations. Trade and other receivables grew by 6% YoY, slower than that of revenue. Operating cash flow reached RMB1.44bn, more than net profit. Dividend payout ratio increased from the average of 51% during 2016-22 to 73% in 2023. We cut our 2024-25E core EPS by 3.2- 8.6%, respectively, based on more prudent assumption of residential GFA expansion and VAS revenue growth. GS has delivered quality growth with decent third party expansion and improving margin and cash flow. Maintain BUY rating for the stock.
綠城服務（GS）2023年收入同比增長17.1％，達到人民幣174億元，符合我們的估計。特別是，社區生活服務收入同比增長了25％，這要歸功於新的股權合作，其中不包括該細分市場的收入同比增長15.6％。毛利率增長了0.6個百分點至16.8％，比我們的估計高出0.3個百分點，這是因爲除技術服務以外的所有細分市場的毛利率均有所增長。銷售和收購佔收入的百分比也下降了0.3個百分點，比我們的估計低0.7個百分點。結果，我們計算出核心淨利潤同比增長32％，達到人民幣7.21億元。由於對北京一家零售公司的商業投資，報告的淨利潤僅同比增長10.6％，至人民幣6,050億元，比中銀國際和市場預期低7.0％和13.8％。貿易和其他應收賬款同比增長6％，低於收入。運營現金流達到14.4億元人民幣，超過淨利潤。股息支付率從2016-22年的平均51％提高到2023年的73％。基於對住宅總建築面積擴張和增值稅收入增長的更謹慎的假設，我們將2024-25年度的核心每股收益分別下調了3.2-8.6％。GS通過良好的第三方擴張以及利潤率和現金流的改善實現了高質量的增長。維持股票的買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
New contracted value in 2023 amounted to RMB4.32bn, lower than the RMB4.58bn in 2022, but higher than 2022's number at RMB4.09bn excluding a cooperative business with Cinda. Non-residential projects accounted for 46.9% among new contracted value, up from 43.5% in 2022. Average management fee for residential projects increased from 2022's RMB3.2/sqm/month to 2023's RMB3.24/sqm/month. Cash collection rate for residential projects increased from 2022's 93.3% to 2023's 95.2%. For 2024, management target to obtain at least RMB4bn new contracted value.
2023年的新合同價值爲43.2億元人民幣，低於2022年的45.8億元人民幣，但高於2022年的40.9億元人民幣，不包括與信達的合作業務。在新的合同價值中，非住宅項目佔46.9％，高於2022年的43.5％。住宅項目的平均管理費從2022年的3.2元/平方米/月增加到2023年的人民幣3.24元/平方米/月。住宅項目的現金收款率從2022年的93.3％提高到2023年的95.2％。到2024年，管理層的目標是獲得至少40億元人民幣的新合同價值。
Community living services revenue increased by 25.0% YoY to RMB3.57bn, partially thanks to an equity cooperation. Excluding such impact, the segment's revenue grew by 16.8%. GS is refocusing on more profitable business models within the boundary of its managed communities, and closing up loss making business units. The company targets to improve gross margin of its professional product lines by 1ppt in 2024.
社區生活服務收入同比增長25.0％，達到35.7億元人民幣，部分原因是股權合作。不包括此類影響，該細分市場的收入增長了16.8％。GS正在重新關注其管理社區範圍內更有利可圖的商業模式，並關閉虧損業務部門。該公司的目標是在2024年將其專業產品線的毛利率提高1個百分點。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Competition in third-party market expansion may intensify.
第三方市場擴張的競爭可能會加劇。
Valuation
估價
We rolled our valuation to 2025E, and lowered our target P/E from 15x to 13x, considering lower growth under higher base. The stock currently trades at 8.6x 2025E P/E, and 8.4% 2025E yield. We think such valuation is attractive given GS's high quality growth with improving margin and cash flow.
考慮到較高基數下增長放緩，我們將估值上調至2025E，並將目標市盈率從15倍下調至13倍。該股目前的市盈率爲2025年的8.6倍，2025年收益率爲8.4％。鑑於GS的高質量增長以及利潤率和現金流的改善，我們認爲這種估值具有吸引力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。