Source: Wall Street News
Wait for the end of the year to explode.
Following their ideals, another new force announced a reduction in sales expectations for the first quarter.
On the evening of March 27th,$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$/$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$According to the announcement, delivery guidelines for the first quarter will be lowered from the previous 310,000 to 33,000 units to 30,000 units, a decrease of 3% to 9%.
Affected by this, after the US stock market opened that night, NIO's stock price once fell by more than 5.5%.
The last time NIO took the initiative to lower its forward-looking forecast was as early as December 2022, due to a production capacity crisis. NIO did not reveal the exact reason for the adjustment, and according to the industry, the price war and unstable demand for electric vehicles had a significant impact on it.
In the first 2 months of this year, due to external factors such as last year's impulse overdraft demand and the Spring Festival holiday evening, most car companies in the industry experienced a year-on-year decline not seen in years, apart from questioning the industry, etc.
Under the influence of this trend, it is inevitable that NIO, which is conservative in price cuts, is under pressure.
In fact, NIO's internal expectations for the whole of this year are not low; it is necessary to achieve a delivery KPI of 230,000 units, which is double that of the same period last year. In order to stimulate sales, NIO also adjusted the price of BaaS services in mid-March, further lowering the threshold for car ownership.
However, judging from this forecast adjustment, NIO's killer has not been able to immediately pay off and reverse the overall slump in the first quarter. According to its new target of 30,000 vehicles, NIO's year-on-year increase in March was only 14%.
Therefore, the market is worried about whether this temporary correction will affect the achievement of its annual target. NIO has yet to comment on this.
According to Chairman Li Bin's plan, NIO's Nirvana “big moves” are basically concentrated in the second half of the year.
First, the sub-brand “Ledao” is receiving the most attention in the industry, which will play a key role in driving NIO's overall sales volume.
According to Li Bin, “Ledao” anchors the young family market, and the first SUV will compete directly with the Model Y, which currently sells the most in the pure electric field.
Li Bin has a lot of ambition. He believes that the brand has a latecomer advantage, and relies on the NIO main brand's platform foundation. It is quite competitive in terms of cost and performance, and “will be 10% cheaper than Tesla”; moreover, “Ledao” will have full combat power as soon as it enters the market, “so it will prioritize sales, and will not focus on gross profit in the early stages,” Li Bin emphasized.
According to the plan, “Ledao” will launch its brand in the second quarter, launch its first model in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, and begin large-scale delivery. The second SUV for large families has already entered the opening stage, and the third model is also under development.
As for NIO's main brand, Li Bin made it clear earlier that no new models will be launched this year. It is more necessary to strengthen control on the demand side by sinking channels, rolling out power exchange stations, and releasing smart driving functions. At the same time, along with price adjustments for BaaS services, it is necessary to further stimulate the market.
This means that starting in the second half of the year, NIO will be able to start working as a dual brand. At the results meeting in early March, Li Bin also confidently stated that as the market warms up after March, NIO will return to the level of monthly sales of 20,000 units.
However, the correction in the first quarter sounded a wake-up call for NIO. As the knockout tournament entered the deep-water zone, industry shuffles became more frequent, and leading players were not spared, so they all offered strategies such as price cards, technical cards, and sailing cards to respond quickly.
In the empty window period before the sub-brand “Reinforcements” and infrastructure effectiveness were fully released, Li Bin and his NIO would still have to break through layers of thin ice and adjust their positions in a timely manner in the face of changes in the market and consumer demand before they can last until the end of the year and wait until the end of the year.
editor/tolk