投资建议：公司固废主业运营能力增强，有望发挥“压舱石”作用；资源再生业务短期承压，随着客户逐步回流，预计有望转好。结合公司经营情况，调整对公司的盈利预测，预计23/24/25 年EPS 分别为1.37/1.67/1.91 元/股（前值1.75/1.86/2.06 元/股），对应3 月27 日收盘价PE 分别为10/8/7 倍。给予24年10 倍PE，目标价16.70 元/股，维持“谨慎推荐”评级。Incident: On March 27, the company released its 2023 performance report. In 2023, it achieved operating income of 3.195 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.61%; net profit to mother of 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.19%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.58%. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 795 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.14%; net profit to mother was 73 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.89%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 82 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.30%.
Lithium battery recycling assets are being calculated, and the resource recycling business is under pressure in the short term: the company's lithium battery recycling business uses a production model with less in-house production and multi-generation processing. Affected by the decline in metal prices, Deqing Lixin prepared an inventory price reduction of 80 million yuan and calculated goodwill impairment reserves of 0.15 million yuan, which had an impact on the company's overall profitability. The recycled rubber project Huili in Nantong stopped production due to the relocation of the main plant, and lost customers. As a result, production capacity utilization was insufficient, and a loss of 25 million yuan was lost. Nantong Huili is resuming dealings with customers from many brands. As customers gradually return, the recycled rubber business is expected to improve.
The main solid waste industry is progressing steadily, and share buybacks show confidence: in 2023, Jingzhou Wangneng Phase II was officially put into operation, Dingxi Environmental Protection has entered trial operation, with a total production capacity of 1,450 tons/day; in the kitchen project, projects such as Suzhou Phase II, Bengbu Phase II, and Huzhou Phase II have been officially put into operation, with a total production capacity of 800 tons/day. By the end of 2023, the company had put into operation and trial operated waste incineration power generation with a total production capacity of 22,320 tons/day; the total production capacity of the kitchen project had been put into operation and trial operation. On February 7, the company announced a repurchase plan. The repurchase price is no more than 13.00 yuan/share, and the total repurchase amount is 25-50 million yuan. The company's main solid waste business is progressing steadily, and it is expected to play the role of “ballast stone”.
Investment suggestions: The company's main solid waste business has increased its operating capacity and is expected to play the role of a “ballast stone”; the resource recycling business is under pressure in the short term, and it is expected to improve as customers gradually return. Based on the company's operating conditions, the profit forecast for the company is estimated to be 1.37/1.67/1.91 yuan/share for 23/24/25 (previous value 1.75/1.86/2.06 yuan/share), respectively, and the corresponding closing price PE on March 27 is 10/8/7 times, respectively. Give 10 times PE in 24 years, target price 16.70 yuan/share, and maintain a “careful recommendation” rating.
Risk warning: industry policy risks; commodity price fluctuations; industry competition intensified; project commissioning fell short of expectations.
