occurrences
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 1,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.30%; net profit to mother of 501 million yuan, an increase of 175.98%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 493 million yuan, an increase of 195.86% over the previous year. The elasticity of revenue growth was mainly contributed by pimples, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Comment:
Performance is in line with expectations, and profitability has improved
Q4 achieved revenue of 581 million yuan (YoY +182.65%), realized net profit of 170 million yuan (YoY +661.07%), realized net profit of 168 million yuan (YoY +604.01%), overall gross profit margin of 90.23%, and net profit margin of 27.46% (19.90% year-on-year). On the cost side, the promotion of new products brought about a simultaneous increase in revenue and expenses. The management fee was 159 million yuan (+10.30%) during the reporting period, and the management fee rate was 8.73% (-4.75pp).
The shingles vaccine has entered the release period, beginning a new stage of growth
By product, revenue from the shingles vaccine in 2023 was 883 million yuan, with sales volume of 663,500 units, gross profit margin of 97.5%; chickenpox vaccine revenue of 820 million yuan, down 14.36% year on year, sales volume of 6.711,400 units, gross profit margin 85.35%; revenue of nasal spray influenza vaccine was 122 million yuan, up 6.85% year on year, sales volume of 419,600 units, gross profit margin 70.60%. Sales of the company's new single product, blisters, continued to contribute to an increase.
The product matrix under development is rich and has long-term development momentum
In 2023, the company's R&D expenses were 119 million yuan (+48.34%), and the R&D cost rate was 10.86% (-1.61pp); according to the R&D agency, the company's liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine is about to apply for marketing approval, and the component 100 white vaccine is undergoing phase III clinical sample preparation (phase I completed); clinical trial applications for human diploid and wholly human anti-tetanus toxin monoclonal antibodies have been approved, and clinical research will soon be carried out; adjuvant influenza vaccine, recombinant shingles vaccine, Hib, and HSV-2 vaccines are scheduled to carry out clinical trial registration work in 2024. The product matrix under development is rich, and there is momentum for medium- to long-term development.
Profit forecasting and investment advice: maintaining a “buy” rating
Since the launch of the company's major shingles vaccine products, the chickenpox vaccine will maintain its market share; it is expected that the chickenpox vaccine will maintain its market share; it is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 25.15/32.89/37.57 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, +37.83%/30.80%/14.22%; it will achieve net profit of 7.49/10.22/ 1,187 billion yuan, or +49.46%/36.45%/16.19% year over year, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The marketing of new products fell short of expectations; product testing and approval fell short of expectations, etc.