经营端：2023 年，国际成品油市场全年走势前高后低。以 MR TC7 线（新加坡-澳大利亚东海岸）为例，2023 年平均 TCE 为 26,212 美元/天， 2022 年平均 TCE 为 34,370 美元/天。分业务看，2023 年全年：1）油品运输实现营收52.2 亿元，同比+3.4%，营收占比约为84.3%，毛利率约为36.3%，同比提升2.4pts；化工品运输实现营收4.4 亿元，同比+3.8%，营收占比分别为7.1%，毛利率约为17.3%，同比下降3.5pts；乙烯运输实现营收1.8 亿元，同比+8.4%，营收占比分别为2.9%，毛利率约为28.3%，同比下降8.2pts。2）外贸业务实现营收35.1 亿元，同比+1.9%，营收占比约为56.7%，毛利率约为33.9%，同比提升2.9pts；内贸业务实现营收26.8 亿元，同比-4.6%，营收占比约为43.3%，毛利率约为31.5%，同比提升2.7pts。The company announced its 2023 annual report: the 23-year performance increased 8.6% year over year. 1) Performance: Net profit attributable to mother was 1.56 billion yuan in 2023, +8.6% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.54 billion yuan, +8.7% year over year.
Among them, Q4 achieved net profit of 350 million yuan, -26.3% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 350 million, or -27.4% year-on-year. 2) Revenue: In 2023, revenue of 6.20 billion yuan was achieved, -1.1% year-on-year; of these, Q4 achieved revenue of 1.55 billion yuan, or -17.4% year-on-year. 3) Profit margin: Gross profit margin of 32.8% in 2023, +2.8 pts year on year, net interest rate due to mother 25.1%, +2.2 pts year on year; net profit margin of 24.8% without return to mother, +2.2 pts year on year.
Among them, Q4 gross profit margin was 31.9%, -2.9 pts year over month, -0.5 pts month over month; net profit margin was 22.8%, -2.8 pts year on year, -1.3 pts month on month; net interest rate without return to mother was 22.5%, -3.1 pts year on year, and -1.5 pts month-on-month. 4) Expense rate: In 2023, the company's three rate (excluding R&D) was 2.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 pts; of these, the Q4 three-rate was 3.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 pts. 5) Fleet structure: At the end of 2023, the company had a fleet of 68 ships, totaling 2.52 million DWT, of which the proportion of energy-saving ships reached 30%.
Business side: In 2023, the annual trend of the international refined oil market was high and low. Taking the MR TC7 line (Singapore-Australia East Coast) as an example, the average TCE was $26,212 per day in 2023, and the average TCE was $34,370 per day in 2022. By business, for the full year of 2023:1) Oil transportation achieved revenue of 5.22 billion yuan, accounting for about 84.3% of revenue, with gross margin of about 36.3%, up 2.4 pts year on year; chemical transportation achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, +3.8% year on year, accounting for 7.1% of revenue, gross margin of about 17.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5 pts; Ethylene Transportation achieved revenue of 180 million yuan, +8.4% year on year, with revenue share of 2.9%, gross margin of about 28.3% year on year, down 8.2 pts year on year. 2) The foreign trade business achieved revenue of 3.51 billion yuan, +1.9% year on year, accounting for about 56.7% of revenue, gross margin of about 33.9%, up 2.9 pts year on year; domestic trade business achieved revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, -4.6% year on year, accounting for about 43.3% of revenue, gross margin of about 31.5%, up 2.7 pts year on year.
Cost side: Annual operating costs decreased by 5.1%. Among them, fuel, and material costs decreased by 7.5%, port fees increased 10.3% year on year, crew remuneration increased 9.5%, depreciation costs increased by -3.5%, and rent increased by 12.1%.
The supply and demand pattern is improving, and freight rates are expected to rise at the center. 1) Demand side: The geopolitics of Europe and the Middle East, the withdrawal of old refining energy, and changes in trade flows continued to support the increase in demand by tons of nautical miles. In 2023, global trade volume of refined oil products increased by 3.0%, and tons and nautical miles increased by about 11%. 2) Supply side: The number of new finished tanker construction orders has recovered in 2023, but current orders only account for 6.9% of the current fleet capacity and are still at a relatively low level in history. Combined with the implementation of environmental regulations such as EEXI and CII, higher fuel prices, and an increase in the proportion of ships over 15 years old, shipowners are encouraged to sail at low speeds, further reducing capacity supply capacity.
Investment advice: 1) Profit forecast: Based on current market demand and freight rate levels, we slightly adjusted our 24-25 profit forecast to achieve net profit of 2.20 billion yuan and 2.32 billion yuan (the original forecast was 2.15 billion and 2.31 billion yuan), and also introduced a 26-year profit forecast to achieve an estimated net profit of 2.36 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS for 24-26 years was 0.46, 0.48, and 0.49 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 7.1, 6.7, and 6.6 times. 2) Valuation: Maintain the previous valuation method, that is, use the cyclical stock boom cycle 10 times PE to give 2024 performance 10 times PE, corresponding to a target market value of 22 billion yuan, and a one-year target price of 4.59 yuan. The expected space is 41% compared to the current price, and the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: Demand for oil transportation falls short of expectations, risk of oil price fluctuations, old ship dismantling process falls short of expectations, geopolitical risks, etc.
