Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600486) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to CN¥51.43 in the week after its latest full-year results. Revenues were CN¥11b, 10% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥3.87 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical from twelve analysts is for revenues of CN¥15.6b in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 16% to CN¥4.47. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥15.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.53 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥86.79, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥108 and the most bearish at CN¥70.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 36% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.