The Zhitong Finance App learned that Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that with the rapid development of next-generation digital technologies such as AI, big data, and cloud computing, car-free carriers have gradually evolved into the form of online freight platforms. As of 2023, China's total social logistics costs were 18.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of GDP, and logistics costs are at a high level. As a result, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency in China's road freight industry is increasing. It is estimated that by 2025, China's online freight platform market will reach nearly 700 billion yuan, with broad room for growth. Under the opportunities brought about by the accelerated development of China's digital economy, it is recommended to focus on logistics industry segments and targets related to main digital lines such as cross-border e-commerce logistics and digital freight.

Related targets: 1) We recommend Sinotrans (601598.SH), a leading cross-border logistics leader that also benefits from the boom in cross-border e-commerce and the China Special Assessment Concept, focusing on China Eastern Airlines Logistics (601156.SH), Huamao Logistics (603128.SH), etc.; 2) Focus on leading domestic online freight platforms that actively explore digital construction, Transanhua Intelligent Link (002010.SZ), etc.

Galaxy Securities's views are as follows:

Digital economy: An important source of national economic growth and a driving force for the development of the logistics industry.

The scale of China's digital economy continues to grow. Digital industrialization and industrial digitalization have become important contributors to the total national economy and an important driving force for the development of the logistics industry in the new era. Up to now, the digital economy has continued to play the role of “steady growth and promotion of transformation”, driving the further improvement of China's current economic development pattern of “domestic cycle as main focus and mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles”, and injecting stronger vitality into the global economy at an accelerated pace of recovery and growth. According to the “China Digital Economic Development Research Report” released by the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, in 2022, China's digital economy reached 50.2 trillion yuan, continuing to rank second in the world in terms of total scale, accounting for 41.5% of GDP. Among them, in China's digital economy, the scale of digital industrialization and industrial digitization reached 41 trillion yuan and 9.2 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 33.9% and 7.6% of GDP respectively.

Cross-border e-commerce logistics: The accelerated penetration of “Internet +” has given the racetrack a boom, and the rise of the “Four Dragons Going Overseas” has brought new opportunities for cross-border logistics.

Along with the development of China's digital economy, the “Internet +” business continues to penetrate into economic life. Combined with the further cultivation of online production, transactions and consumption scenarios during the epidemic, China's Internet and cross-border e-commerce penetration rate continued to increase significantly; compounded by post-epidemic global economic recovery, the prosperity of China's cross-border e-commerce industry chain continued to rise, and the scale of the industry continued to expand. The transaction scale of China's cross-border e-commerce industry reached 15.7 trillion yuan in 2022. Since 2023, under the trend of China's cross-border e-commerce platforms going overseas at an accelerated pace, the “Four Little Dragons Going Overseas” have shown a trend of contrarian rise and rapid expansion, further boosting the prosperity of the cross-border e-commerce industry. In this context, cross-border e-commerce logistics, as an important link in the cross-border e-commerce industry chain, benefits from the accelerated growth in commercial demand, and may once again welcome broad development space.

Digital freight: An important component of new quality productivity. Digitalization helps road freight achieve cost reduction and efficiency.

With the rapid development of next-generation digital technologies such as AI, big data, and cloud computing, car-free carriers gradually evolved into the form of online freight platforms. At the same time, in China's freight logistics industry, road freight occupies a dominant position, but it also faces the problems of high cost and low efficiency. As of 2023, China's total social logistics costs were 18.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of GDP, and logistics costs were at a high level. As a result, China's road freight industry's demand for cost reduction and efficiency is increasing. It is estimated that by 2025, China's online freight platform market will reach nearly 700 billion yuan, with broad room for growth. Currently, there are many participants in the online freight platform market in China, but leading companies compete fiercely, showing a pattern of unicorns fighting for supremacy. Among them, leaders such as Manbang and Transanhua Zhilian have significant share advantages.

Risk warning: 1) Cross-border e-commerce logistics: Overseas economic growth falls short of expectations, leading to a risk that consumption recovery falls short of expectations; risks caused by excessive competition among cross-border e-commerce companies; risks caused by geopolitical friction. 2) Digital freight: risks arising from logistics demand falling short of expectations; risks arising from changes in the digital freight construction process; risks arising from changes in online freight platform supervision policies; risks arising from changes in local government tax rebate policies.