The company's 2023 revenue exceeded the equity incentive target, and the net profit was basically consistent with the performance report. In 2023, the company's revenue was 8.3 billion yuan, up 139.7% year on year, up 96.1% from 2019, exceeding the equity incentive target (600 million yuan); net profit to mother was 190 million yuan, up 273.5% year on year, up 184.7% year on year. In line with the performance report, net interest rate to mother was 22.5%. Q4 The company's revenue was 370 million yuan, up 75.1% year on year; net profit to mother was 110 million yuan, up 68.6% year on year, corresponding to net interest rate due to mother 29.1%. In 2023, the company announced a dividend of 76.48 million yuan, accounting for 99% of the distributable profit (according to the principle of which the parent company and consolidated statements are lower), and the dividend ratio of net profit to mother was 41%; at the same time, 5 shares were transferred for every 10 shares.
The sales scale of the company's core exhibition reached a record high in 2023, and some markets were disrupted by visa flight factors. The company originally planned to host exhibitions in 12 countries. In fact, it will host about 16 self-hosted exhibitions in 10 countries including the Belt and Road, RCEP, and emerging markets, with a total exhibition area of 260,000 square meters, including a net booth area of nearly 120,000 square meters, with a total intended turnover of 14.6 billion US dollars. Among them, the sales scale in the core region has reached a new high, and the UAE, Indonesia, and Japan are expected to account for more than 70% of the total exhibition scale. The Dubai exhibition in the UAE has been held continuously for 15 years. In 2023, the number of booths exceeded 3,200, breaking through 50,000 square meters and approaching 70,000 square meters before the epidemic; in 2023, the company held 3 exhibitions in Indonesia, with a total exhibition scale of nearly 80,000 square meters; the previously acquired AFF exhibition was replicated from Japan to other places with the help of the company. The total scale reached 30,000 square meters in 2023. Total revenue and profit increased by more than 150% and 340% year on year, showing outstanding performance. Due to visa flights, etc., exhibitions in the US and India were cancelled, and sales volume in Germany was mediocre.
The company benefits from domestic enterprises actively exploring the RCEP and Belt and Road regions, and looks forward to strengthening the core exhibition and expanding the second-tier market. Against the backdrop of a relatively gradual recovery in domestic demand, based on a good manufacturing foundation for cost-effective products, it is a general trend for domestic companies to go overseas to explore the incremental market, and the government is also actively supporting it.
In the past two years, the company has basically completed layout plans and structural optimization in major countries. In 2024, the company plans to hold 16 exhibitions in 11 countries. First, the core region (UAE, Indonesia, Japan) stock exhibition continues to strengthen; second, the second-tier market (Mexico, Brazil, India, the United States, etc.) expands; and third, the professional exhibition reputation has been upgraded after the reorganization of internal operations and sales organization structures. The company's entire comprehensive exhibition line will be upgraded to 8 major professional exhibitions at the same time, which is expected to further open up regional space. 4. Look at potential opportunities for cooperation and mergers and acquisitions. Furthermore, the previous round of equity incentives is over, and future optimizations are worth looking forward to.
Risk warning: risk of changes in international relations, failure of exhibition results to meet expectations, risk of changes in government subsidies, etc.
Investment advice: Maintain the 24-25 net profit forecast of 26/363 million yuan, and add the 2026 profit forecast of 466 million yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE 22/16/13x. Miao Exhibition is a leading overseas exhibition leader. It has worked in the UAE and other countries for many years and has a good reputation. It is expected to directly benefit from the major trend of domestic companies actively exploring the RCEP and Belt and Road markets. The exploration of other new markets is also worth looking forward to. Pay attention to the transformation effects and incentive improvements of subsequent professional exhibitions, and maintain the “gain” rating.