Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Considering the slow recovery in domestic sales, reduce the 24-25 EPS to 1.16/1.39 yuan (previous value 1.20/1.41 yuan), and add the 26-year EPS to 1.75 yuan. Referring to comparable company valuations, considering that the company's five-axis machine tool accounts for a relatively low share, the company was given 23 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 26.68 yuan (previous value 25.20 yuan), maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
The performance was in line with expectations. The company announced that in 2023, it achieved revenue of 2,321 million yuan/ +25.76%, and net profit of 318 million yuan/ +21.13% to mother. Single Q4 achieved revenue of 582 million yuan/YoY +16.79% /-7.82% month-on-month, and net profit to mother of 82 million yuan/YoY +12.58% /-2.44% month-on-month. 2023 gross profit margin 26.46% /-1.03pct, net profit margin 13.69% /-0.52pct. The fourth quarter achieved gross profit margin of 26.41% /-0.77pct/-0.78% month-on-month.
Overseas markets continue to expand, and production and sales of horizontal machine tools have increased. In '23, the company's overseas revenue was 705 million yuan/ +112.99%, and the gross margin increased by 3.58 pct, keeping the company's operating performance growing relatively well. Benefiting from the release of the company's third-phase production capacity and the increase in the company's order acceptance, the production and sales of the company's three major products increased year-on-year. Affected by the increase in overseas sales, horizontal CNC machine tools increased the most, and revenue increased by 41.83% year on year.
Continue to expand the layout of the industry and develop high-end and overseas efforts. The company's product line has covered 200+ models of products such as vertical, horizontal, gantry, CNC lathes, and CNC boring and milling machines. The company's vertical and gantry machining centers for wind power, ships, aerospace and other fields have been put into production one after another. In the future, the focus will be on high growth rates such as new energy vehicles, wind power, aerospace, and overseas. The share of revenue in several major fields is expected to increase, which is expected to far exceed the overall growth rate of the industry.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations, technological upgrades fall short of expectations, etc.